China, on Monday, urged all parties involved in the conflict in West Asia, particularly the U.S. and Israel, to cease military operations, warning of a “vicious cycle” in a war that analysts say, if prolonged, could undermine global growth and weaken demand for Chinese exports.
“The one who tied the bell must be the one to untie it,” said Chinese special envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun at a briefing after his shuttle-diplomacy trip that included stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.
In a separate briefing, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian cautioned the U.S. and Israel that the use of force would create a “vicious cycle” and that the war should never have been started.
“Should the hostilities continue to spread and intensify, the entire region will be plunged into chaos,” he said.
China’s Export Growth Concerns
On Saturday, Trump imposed a 48-hour deadline on Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants otherwise.
Iranian attacks have effectively closed the key waterway across which nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is transported, causing the worst oil crisis since the 1970s.
While Beijing has not disclosed any concerns, a prolonged conflict could weigh on China’s export outlook. Emerging markets, key drivers of Chinese export growth, are particularly vulnerable due to limited oil reserves and sensitivity to rising costs.
China is relatively better positioned to absorb higher oil prices, with coal accounting for approximately 60% of its energy mix, ample oil stockpiles, and imports via the Strait of Hormuz, representing around 5% of total energy consumption.
However, rising oil and gas prices could lift inflation and end producer price deflation, according to the chief Chinese economist.
The bank has cut its forecast for China’s second-quarter growth and raised its inflation outlook for 2026.
Lessons From The Iraq War
“The lessons of the past are not far behind us,” the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday in a reply to Reuters seeking comment on the Iraq War anniversary last week.
“The war 23 years ago brought profound suffering to the Iraqi people and had a serious impact on the Middle East,” the statement said.
Last Friday marked the 23rd anniversary of the Iraq War, in which U.S.-led forces invaded the country partly on claims that Saddam Hussein’s government possessed weapons of mass destruction.
While the regime fell quickly, Iraq has undergone years of instability after the war, which is estimated to have led to 100,000 deaths and cost the U.S. trillions of dollars, creating a power that allowed the rise of the Islamic State terrorist group.
“The war, 23 years later, on Iran has caused severe losses to the Iranian people, and the spillover and spread of the conflict have also affected the entire region,” the ministry said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
