Bangladesh goes to the polls on Thursday in what many observers describe as its most competitive election in over a decade, following the dramatic ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and a sweeping political reset ahead of the vote.
Hasina’s Awami League is banned, but many young people who helped oust her government in a 2024 uprising say the upcoming vote will be the Muslim-majority nation’s first competitive election since 2009, when she began a 15-year-rule.
BNP Leads Race
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely expected to win, although a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is putting up a strong challenge. A new party driven by Gen-Z activists under the age of 30 has aligned with Jamaat after failing to translate its anti-Hasina street mobilisation into an electoral base.
Analysts say a decisive result in the February 12 vote, instead of a fractured outcome, is vital for restoring stability in the nation of 175 million after Hasina’s ouster triggered months of unrest and disrupted major industries, including the garments sector in the world’s second‑largest exporter.
The verdict will also affect the roles of rival regional heavyweights China and India in the South Asian nation.
Opinion polls expect the once-banned Jamaat, which had opposed Bangladesh’s India-backed 1971 independence from Pakistan, to have its best electoral performance even if it does not win.
China’s Influence Increases As India’s Wanes
The election verdict will also influence the roles of China and India in Bangladesh in coming years, analysts have said. Beijing has increased its standing in Bangladesh since Hasina was seen as pro-India and fled to New Delhi after her ouster, where she remains.
While New Delhi’s influence is on the wane, the BNP is seen by some analysts as being relatively more in tune with India than the Jamaat.
A Jamaat-led government might tilt closer to Pakistan, a fellow Muslim‑majority nation and a long‑standing rival of Hindu‑majority India, analysts say. Also, Jamaat’s Gen-Z ally has said “New Delhi’s hegemony” in Bangladesh is one of its main concerns and its leaders met Chinese diplomats recently.
Jamaat, which calls for a society governed by Islamic principles, has said the party is not inclined towards any country.
(With inputs from Reuters)
