China may rethink its escalating pressure campaign on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi if she secures a decisive victory in a February 8 snap election, according to current and former Japanese officials and political analysts.
Weeks after taking office last year, Sanae Takaichi sparked Japan’s most serious diplomatic dispute with Beijing in more than a decade. She publicly outlined how Tokyo might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the self ruled island claimed by China. Beijing demanded that she retract the remarks, but she refused to do so. China then introduced a series of retaliatory measures that are beginning to weigh on the world’s fourth largest economy.
Election Outcome Seen As Critical
China’s initial calculation may have been to weaken or destabilise the Takaichi government, said Kazuhisa Shimada, a former vice minister of defence. He said the election would be pivotal in determining how seriously Beijing treats the current leadership. A weak government, he added, would struggle to command respect.
Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, hopes to use her strong personal approval ratings to strengthen her coalition’s razor thin majority in parliament. Those ratings have remained largely intact despite the diplomatic row with China. A poll released on Thursday suggested she may succeed, although analysts have described the vote as Japan’s most unpredictable in years.
A senior Japanese government official said a large victory would send a clear message to Beijing that its pressure had failed to damage Takaichi domestically. The official added that China’s economic measures risk backfiring, while efforts to portray Takaichi as a dangerous ideologue reviving Japan’s militaristic past have failed to gain international traction. Over time, those factors could force China to re engage, the official said.
Economic Measures Raise Anxiety
Although cost of living issues have dominated the campaign, tensions with China loom large. The dispute threatens Japan’s already weak economic growth and has pushed the government to accelerate security related efforts.
When announcing the snap election on January 19, Takaichi criticised Chinese military exercises around Taiwan and what she described as economic coercion. China’s response has included a state directed boycott of travel to Japan, which almost halved the number of Chinese visitors in December.
Chinese state media have also reported that Beijing is considering restrictions on exports of rare earths and other critical minerals. Analysts at Daiwa Institute of Research said such curbs could shave up to 3 percent from Japan’s GDP and cost around two million jobs. A Reuters survey found that more than two thirds of Japanese firms expect strained relations with China to affect the economy. Meanwhile, a poll by the Asahi Shimbun showed that 60 percent of voters are concerned about the economic impact, up from 53 percent in December.
Echoes Of A Previous Leader
Takaichi’s decision to call an early election may also reflect lessons drawn from her mentor, former prime minister Shinzo Abe. He returned to power in 2012 during an earlier period of high tension with China and went on to secure repeated election victories. Once his political base was firmly established, China had little choice but to deal with his government, and Abe later met Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Analysts say a key test will be whether Takaichi’s party can secure a majority on its own in the 465 seat lower house. Achieving that would signal durability and suggest she is likely to remain in office for several years. A smaller victory, however, could invite continued or intensified pressure from Beijing.
With inputs from Reuters
