Former US president Donald Trump, latest US polling data suggests, is ahead of Democratic challenger and current Vice-President Kamala Harris by narrow margins in all seven swing states (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan).
AtlasIntel found that Trump had 52.3% vs Harris 45.8% in Arizona, 51.2% vs Harris 46% in Nevada, and 50.5% vs Harris 47.1% in North Carolina.
Trump was also ahead in Georgia 501% vs 47.6%, 49.7 vs 48.2% in Michigan, 49.6% vs 47.8% in Pennsylvania and 49.7% vs 48.6% in Wisconsin. Overall, Trump has a lead of 49% with Harris trailing at 47.2%.
AtlasIntel says several of the swing states are within the poll’s two-point margin of error. The agency also claims its polling was the most accurate during the 2020 election cycle when it successfully predicted the outcome in every swing state within the margin of error.
But a new poll says Kamala Harris has overtaken Trump in Iowa, a state which had voted Republican in 2016 and 2020. The change has been attributed to women and older voters.
Harris was ahead 47% to 44%. But the Trump campaign also released a poll which showed the Republican hope had a 10-point lead.
The seven swing states have 93 electoral college votes. Pennsylvania has the most 19, followed by Georgia and North Carolina with 16 each and Michigan with 15.
These states apart from their unpredictability, have a diverse demographic base, economic interests and cultural perspectives resulting in shifting voter preferences from one election to another.
Voters will also decide which party will control the two houses of Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Republicans currently have a slim majority in the House which has 435 seats, while the Democrats narrowly control the Senate which has 34 seats.
Five key races to watch are Nebraska’s second district currently represented by a Republican; New York where five Republican-held seats are being targeted by the Democrats; North Carolina’s first and California’s 45th districts and Iowa’s third district.
With Reuters inputs
