The battle to seal the presidential nomination went to script as both President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump notched up dominating victories on ‘Super Tuesday”, a day when both Republican and Democratic voters from 15 US states selected their candidate of choice as presidential nominee.
Speaking post the results, President Biden said, “Tonight’s results leave the American people with a clear choice: Are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us backwards into the chaos, division, and darkness that defined his term in office.”
While Biden notched up expected victories in all states, only slipping in American Samoa, where unknown Democrat candidate Jason Palmer beat him by 51 votes to 40. While Palmer’s victory may have been a one-off against the president who managed to score more than 80% of the vote across the board, he did raise some of the queries that Democrats have been posing.
“Joe Biden has been a great public servant for 50 years,” he said. “I voted for him four years ago. But we want a younger candidate. We want someone who’s going to be more energetic and active and can beat Donald Trump.”
But Palmer’s stance on Gaza, where he has called for an immediate ceasefire, raises another major worry for Biden. Some analysts feel that even if the much-touted “Ramadan deal” – when fighting will be halted for the 40-day holy period of Ramadan while Israeli hostages are exchanged for Palestinian prisoners – does go through, the anger against the president is unlikely to diminish.
Even measures taken by the president to help Palestinians such as air-dropping aid supplies has not helped.
The “Gaza factor” meant that Biden lost swing voters in key states such as Minnesota, where some 20% of Democrats marked their ballots “uncommitted,” according to Edison Research. What may be further bad news for the president and his team is that the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) the largest left-wing organisation in the country, endorsed the uncommitted vote on Sunday. This is a big blow for the administration which was hoping to unite all Democrats against what they called the Trump threat.
“Until this administration ends its support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza and delivers a permanent, lasting ceasefire, Joe Biden will bear the responsibility for another Trump presidency,” the DSA wrote on X on Sunday. It has teamed up with pro-Palestinian organisations and has been strongly endorsed by Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian member of Congress who voted “uncommitted” in Michigan last week. The Palestinian Democrat leader said in a video message on February 27 that she “was proud today to walk in, and pull a Democratic ballot, and vote ‘uncommitted.”
Tlaib has been drawing a lot of publicity with her ‘Listen to Michigan’ campaign, and her open opposition, along with that of a growing number of left-wing groups, may affect the Biden campaign even if a ceasefire is declared.
On the Republican side, former president Donald Trump cruised to victory. Republican presidential nominee hopeful Nikki Haley, who had earlier exhorted people to go out and vote on X, remained silent on the platform as the results came in. Haley did win Washington D.C. and Vermont but apart from that it was a Trump show. The final counting is still taking place but with the New York Times showing the former president with 995 delegates and Haley with 89 (1,215 is needed to tie up the nomination) the former president will now be hoping that he and the Republican party can get back to the business of attacking Biden.
“They call it Super Tuesday for a reason. This is a big one. And they tell me, the pundits and otherwise, that there’s never been one like this,” Trump said at his election night watch party at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach.
Nikki Haley did finally suspend her campaign later in the day, but interestingly, she did not endorse the former president as she bowed out.
Despite Trump’s impressive showing, Haley did expose some weaknesses during her campaign. Her impressive showing in areas with college-going voters and her ability to get under the former president’s skin did lead to him use language that could turn off independent voters. According to data released by Gallup in January, 43% of US adults identified themselves as independent in 2023, tying with the 2014 high. Those identifying as Democrat or Republican was at 27%, according to the survey. This will be of concern to the former president since many of the uncommitted voters are Democrat who may sit out the vote. This contrasts with the Republican base which has by and large stayed solid. Given Trump’s support for Israel, the lack of interest in Nato, and the war in Ukraine, it is unlikely he can win them over.
The other issue that Trump faces is that of campaign financing. According to federal filings, the former president began February with $30.4 million in hand, as opposed to President Biden who has declared $130 million. Trump is believed to be meeting potential donors to ask for more money and one of them is believed to be Elon Musk. According to the New York Times, Musk met Trump, although it remains unclear whether he has pledged any money. However, both Musk and Biden share a deep personal dislike for one another, and the tech tycoon has made it clear on his X postings, that the president must be defeated come November.
With so many unaccountable factors, it remains impossible to predict just how the race will progress. How Biden manages key foreign policy issues and whether his upcoming State of the Union address – scheduled for Thursday – will pull some disgruntled Democrats towards him, remains to be seen. At the same time, Trump will have to decide just how he can win the backing of college-going voters without alienating his core base. It’s an act that will require some political jugglery, which his strongman campaign will not allow him to do very easily. How both men manage this will play a key factor in deciding the winner come November.
