The 8th meeting of Quad foreign ministers opens in Tokyo on Monday with a big question: while the storm around Prime Minister Modi’s summit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin earlier this month may have largely faded, it’s not clear how this could play out in the inner circles of the Quad.
As a senior former diplomat pointed out, “The Russia visit played badly all around and the question that will be posed is whether India is committed at all. Blowing hot and cold, and avoiding calling it a grouping to counter China. We are reluctant to commit.”
This is an odd situation given that all four Quad members (Australia, Japan, India, US) have issues with China, yet Delhi’s inability to commit may see them move on. AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) is a reality as is SQUAD (US, Japan, Australia, Philippines) which is pushing ahead with maritime patrols in the South China Sea to counter Beijing.
This is not to say Quad will dissipate but critics say the group could end up a talking shop. Scholars say that the lack of institutionalization has resulted in no proper mechanism to follow up on key decisions.
The Quad Vaccine Partnership of March 2021 saw the delivery of 800 million Covid-19 vaccine doses globally. But it’s not clear whether a broader Quad Health Security Partnership announced last year has got off the ground.
The scholarships initiative known as the Quad Fellowship, has seen some movement with the second cohort of 25 STEM scholars from India heading for US shores (joining them are 25 scholars from each of the other Quad members).
The initiative on critical technology has also seen some movement in areas like 5G and Quantum.
Some work is ongoing in the maritime area which is being driven by the US. Measures to curb illegal fishing (which targets Chinese fishing fleets) is working, along with humanitarian assistance and disaster relief measures.
But lack of institutionalization of the group is seen as a handicap, preventing follow-up, execution and monitoring of programmes.
Japan is keen on hosting a Quad headquarters, but lack of consensus has delayed a decision. It remains to be seen if this Quad foreign ministers summit produces movement in that direction.
What about Quad-plus? The group has not expanded in all these years. South Korea is the only country to show some interest and it even released a paper on the Indo-Pacific some time ago. Asean states have shown no interest largely because of their dependence on the China trade.
Will this Quad summit produce a breakthrough? Watch this space.
