In an address to the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday, 04 December, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spelt out the developments that determine “The contemporary phase of our ties with China.”
Analysing the India-China relations, Editor-in-Chief of StratNews Global, Nitin A. Gokhale, cautions that the present situation in India-China relations, particularly regarding the border dispute, remains precarious.
While there have been some steps forward, such as the 2024 agreement to restore pre-2020 patrolling rights in Depsang and Demchok, it is premature to conclude that the issues have been fully resolved, he says.
To understand the present and future of the relations, it would be wise to look at the history of issues with China. So we mentioned some of the major incidents since the 1962 war, which is chronologically mentioned below:
1962: Sino-Indian War
China claimed Aksai Chin as part of Xinjiang and Arunachal Pradesh as part of Tibet.
India lost a large portion of Aksai Chin (38,000 sq km) after a devastating defeat.
1967: Nathu La and Cho La Clashes
Location: Sikkim (then a protectorate of India, annexed in 1975).
Indian and Chinese troops clashed at Nathu La and later at Cho La Pass.
Despite being a relatively minor conflict, it marked the first time India repelled Chinese aggression, inflicting heavy casualties on Chinese forces.
The clashes established Indian dominance in Sikkim, with the area remaining peaceful afterward.
1986-87: Sumdorong Chu Incident (Location: Arunachal Pradesh)
Chinese troops built a helipad in Sumdorong Chu Valley, leading to a tense standoff. This incident did not escalate into full-blown conflict
1988: Rajiv Gandhi’s Visit to China
Landmark event in India-China relations, marking the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to China in 34 years. It set the stage for a thaw in bilateral ties that had been frozen since the 1962 war.
1993: Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the LAC
1996: Agreement on Confidence-Building Measures in the Military Field
2003: Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for Border Settlement
2013: Depsang Plains Standoff (Location: Depsang Plains, Ladakh)
Chinese troops set up tents 19 km into Indian territory, sparking a standoff. India countered by setting up its own positions.
The standoff lasted three weeks and was resolved diplomatically with both sides withdrawing.
2014: Chumar and Demchok Incidents (Location: Chumar and Demchok, Ladakh)
Chinese troops intruded into Chumar during President Xi Jinping’s visit to India.
A tense standoff ensued but was resolved diplomatically.
These incidents highlighted the fragility of agreements on maintaining peace.
2017: Doklam Standoff (Location: Doklam Plateau – disputed by China and Bhutan, near the India-China-Bhutan trijunction)
Chinese troops attempted to construct a road, prompting intervention by Indian troops.
The standoff lasted 73 days and ended with both sides agreeing to withdraw.
This was seen as a victory for India in protecting Bhutan’s territorial integrity.
2020: Galwan Valley Clash and Ladakh Standoff (Location: Ladakh, including Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Depsang Plains, and others)
In June, a violent clash in Galwan Valley led to the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops, the first fatalities since 1975.
The conflict involved several rounds of talks but led to significant distrust.
Both nations deployed tens of thousands of troops, artillery, and tanks along the LAC.
2024: Agreement on Depsang and Demchok
After prolonged negotiations, an agreement was reached to reestablish pre-2020 patrolling rights in the strategic regions of Depsang and Demchok.
This was seen as a step forward in easing tensions but did not address the broader border dispute comprehensively.
The progress in 2024, while significant, should be viewed as a step in managing the border dispute rather than resolving it. Until there is a comprehensive agreement addressing the fundamental territorial issues, the situation will remain a flashpoint in India-China relations.
Why It is Premature to Call Issues Resolved
No Final Border Settlement
Agreements like the 1993, 1996, and 2003 accords provide temporary mechanisms for peace but do not resolve the fundamental dispute over Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh.
Persistent Disagreements
China’s continued claims over Arunachal Pradesh and India’s infrastructure push in border areas ensure that friction persists.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
China’s long-term strategic ambitions, and its view that India has moved closer to the USA, further exacerbate tensions.
Need for Monitoring Compliance
Agreements like the one on Depsang and Demchok require monitoring to ensure implementation.
Historical precedent shows that agreements are sometimes not adhered to, with clashes occurring despite confidence-building measures.
Finally, Nitin opines that a final resolution of the border dispute is unlikely without significant political will on both sides, which appears absent in the current strategic environment.
