Lebanon’s Hezbollah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, but the Iran-backed group will likely try to rebuild its stockpiles and forces and pose a long term threat to the U.S. and its regional allies, four sources briefed on updated U.S. intelligence told Reuters.
U.S. intelligence agencies assessed in recent weeks that Hezbollah, even amid Israel’s military campaign, had begun to recruit new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm
through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria, said a senior U.S. official, an Israeli official and two U.S. lawmakers briefed on the intelligence, speaking on
condition of anonymity.
It’s unclear to what extent those efforts have slowed since last week when Hezbollah and Israel reached a shaky ceasefire, two of the sources said. The deal specifically prohibits
Hezbollah from procuring weapons or weapons parts.
In recent days, Israel has tried to undercut Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its military forces, striking several Hezbollah rocket launchers in Lebanon, bombing border crossings
with Syria, and blocking an Iranian aircraft suspected of ferrying weapons for the group.
U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah is operating with limited firepower. It has lost more than half its weapons stockpiles and thousands of fighters during the conflict
with Israel, reducing Tehran’s overall military capacity to its lowest point in decades, according to the intelligence.
But Hezbollah has not been destroyed. It still maintains thousands of short-range rockets in Lebanon and it will try to rebuild using weapons factories in neighboring countries with
available transport routes, the sources said.
One of the lawmakers said Hezbollah has been “knocked back” in the short term and had its ability to conduct command and control reduced. But the lawmaker added: “This organization is designed to be disrupted.”
U.S. officials are concerned about Hezbollah’s access to Syria, where Syrian rebels recently launched an offensive to retake government strongholds in Aleppo and Hama. Hezbollah has long used Syria as a safe haven and transport hub, taking military equipment and weapons from Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon through the rugged border crossings.
Washington is trying to pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to limit Hezbollah’s operations, enlisting other countries in the region to help, a senior U.S. official said.
Reuters reported on Monday that the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates have discussed possibly lifting sanctions on Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah officials have said the group will continue to function as a “resistance” against Israel, but its secretary general Naim Qassem has not brought up the group’s weapons in
recent speeches, including after the ceasefire was reached. Sources in Lebanon say Hezbollah’s priority is rebuilding homes for its constituency after Israeli strikes destroyed swaths of Lebanon’s south and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
With Reuters inputs
