The title of the event “12 International Meeting of High-Level Officials Responsible for Security Matters”, may appear a work of genius to the bureaucrat who thought it up. But given that it’s the 12th meeting of its kind, and was attended by representatives of 106 countries including India’s NSA Ajit Doval, merited attention. It was an opportunity to exchange notes on a range of security-related issues including transborder planning, funding and execution of terrorist acts.
But is there more? NSA Ajit Doval’s presence in St Petersburg, Russia, the venue for the event, may appear odd given that elections are ongoing in India. Or was the meeting important for other reasons? The BRICS summit is to be held in Russia in October and apart from discussing the agenda of the summit, the million-dollar question is about Prime Minister Modi’s participation.
Diplomats say there’s no way he can avoid going. But if he goes the Russians are sure to insist on a bilateral summit with Putin. It is Modi’s turn to visit Russia given that Putin was in India in 2021 for the annual bilateral meeting. They met again in Samarkand, Uzbekistan for the SCO summit in Sept 2022 where Modi’s advice to Putin went viral, that “Today’s era is not an era of war”.
So it’s Modi’s turn to visit. But any one-on-one with Putin could raise hackles in Washington DC and European capitals. This even though it is widely accepted that External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar has done well in his outreach to the West. Despite the furor caused by accusations that India was involved in a plot to kill an American citizen, Khalistani sympathizer Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, the smooth tenor of India-US relations continued uninterrupted with high level consultations on science, technology, space, defence and so on.
India also recently hosted Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dymtro Kuleba, a visit which may have been nudged by the West. The visit was notable for two things: there was no meeting with either the prime minister or Doval. So India doesn’t appear to have conceded anything to the Ukrainians while keeping its distance from what Russia is doing in Ukraine. India has also ensured that bilateral ties with Russia remain on track.
To reiterate, it’s Modi turn to call on Putin. NSA Ajit Doval is probably there to lay the ground, set the stage so to speak, to ensure everything goes off smoothly with no hitches, and no rancour.
