Is China a hardening state? That is the title of a new scholarly book on China by Jayadeva Ranade, president of the Centre for China Analysis & Strategy.
The book was written before the current thaw in the relations between Beijing and Delhi, but it defines the road map laid out by President Xi Jinping for emerging as the world’s super power, displacing the US.
That would require a significant hardening of the Chinese state, both internally and externally, says Ranade, during a conversation on the book on the Gist show.
“Its attitude in foreign policy towards its neighbors, towards other countries and domestically, XI Jinping will tighten controls even further in order to ensure that there is no factionalism and nothing which threatens his supremacy domestically.
“His own acolytes have been saying … that after Mao Zedong and Deng Xiao Ping, Xi is the leader who will set the pace … he’s discarded people and things that don’t work .. he’s being more assertive.”
That assertion includes purging the Chinese Communist Party of thousands of cadres, apparently for corruption. Using that as a cloak, he has got rid of his real and potential rivals and even purged the armed forces of scores of senior generals, many of them regarded as his acolytes till the other day.
“There is no organised move against him,” Ranade argues, “none that is discernible and and I think it will be very difficult for such a movement to really happen. I’m not saying it will not happen, but it’s very difficult because even members of the Politburo Standing Committee, seven people who rule China … they’re under surveillance now.”
He sees his main threat as internal, a point which has resulted in the internal security budget being more than the defence budget. Xi has set the target of 2049 as the date when China will become the world No. 1.
No opposition to him is anticipated given the systems Xi has put in place, but as in all authoritarian governments, it usually takes a small trigger to bring down the entire deck of cards.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Jayadeva Ranade, author of China The Hardening State.
Thirty eight years in journalism, widely travelled, history buff with a preference for Old Monk Rum. Current interest/focus spans China, Technology and Trade. Recent reads: Steven Colls Directorate S and Alexander Frater's Chasing the Monsoon. Netflix/Prime video junkie. Loves animal videos on Facebook. Reluctant tweeter.
