Trump, Quad & Indo-Pacific
What’s going to be the approach of the Donald Trump administration towards the Indo-Pacific and Quad?
For long, the United States has been very interested in focusing on the Indo-Pacific. But that’s been more aspirational than real, says David Santoro, President and CEO of Pacific Forum, a Honolulu-based think tank.
“During Trump 1.0, we in the U.S. began talking about the Indo-Pacific. In his second term, you have a lot of people very much committed to focusing on the region. But then there are a lot of challenges that need to be addressed first.” Santoro was referring to immediate priorities such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the situation in Europe.
Regarding Quad, Trump has already signalled his intent. A day after his inauguration, the bloc’s foreign ministers met in Washington, DC. And reaffirmed their shared commitment to strengthening a free and open Indo-Pacific.
The earlier Trump administration was also supportive of the Quad, says Santoro. He feels the grouping has the prospect to develop into something more than what it’s been so far. “I see, for instance, more potential in the Quad than in AUKUS.” The latter will continue to exist and thrive, adds Santoro. But he feels that as AUKUS was developed by the earlier administration, Trump 2.0 may not see it favourably. “Quad is different; it’s more entrenched and therefore has potential to prosper.”
Trump 2.0 And China
Many in the Trump administration are known China hawks and see it as the biggest problem the United States will have to deal with.
The big question is about the approach. While some feel China needs to be contained, others may be inclined about striking a deal. That will be decided by Trump as a result of day to day developments. But Santoro expects focus on China and the region as a whole.
Trump And Taiwan
The current U.S. administration has been clear that the traditional policy and position vis-a-vis Taiwan will remain. Continuity is the name of the game but that could change, says Santoro.
The world’s largest chipmaker TSMC, a Taiwanese company, has already announced plans of increasing its footprint in the U.S.
Trump is interested in what the United States gets out of its relationship with other countries, be it friends, partners and the like.
And given Trump’s transactional attitude, it’s for other countries to think about what they can bring to the table.
