The tide is turning in Myanmar’s civil war, argues well known strategic analyst Atul Aneja. In a conversation on The Gist marking the visit of that country’s President Min Aung Hlaing, Aneja points out that the external support ecosystem for the ethnic armed groups has virtually collapsed with the Trump administration winding up USAID.
That in turn has impacted the operations of a network of NGOs that ensured a steady flow of money and humanitarian aid to the armed ethnic insurgent groups.
But also credit the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Army) for learning from its losses, and retuning its operational concepts to incorporate modern weapons of war.
“They got majorly into drone warfare especially the use of FPV (First Person View) drones that are among the most advanced in the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Aneja said, “then boots on the ground element through conscription.”
The introduction of conscription did not result in a mass exodus of the majority Barma or Burman population. That was a game changer as the army needed people and conscription boosted numbers, enabling them to fight on multiple fronts.
China’s attitude too had changed given the pressure from the US in the Straits of Hormuz, hindering critical energy supplies; there was also the danger posed by Beijing’s heavy reliance on the Straits of Malacca. A transport corridor from Kunming to Kyaukpyu would give Beijing peace of mind.
Therefore, China’s own sense of urgency galvanised it to nudge the Three Brotherhood Alliance comprising the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, to negotiate ceasefires with the Tatmadaw.
“The strategy of the Tatmadaw was very clear,” said Aneja, “don’t lose the main cities, the hubs of Myanmar and from there they started moving and clearing the countryside using new tactics that included apart from drones, the use of artillery and air power. I think it’s almost game, set and match for the military.”
For India, the re-emergence of the military means its concerns over insurgent groups along its northeastern borders will be mitigated. It signals that the Kaladan multipurpose project can be completed helping end the isolation of the north eastern states and the Asian Trilateral Highway can finally be realised, bringing India to the doors of the Pacific.
Tune in for more in this conversation with strategic analyst Atul Aneja.
