Pakistan appears to be on the path of escalation in the current conflict, hitting Indian civilian targets in the wake of Operation Sindoor which focused only on terrorist infrastructure. When India retaliated, Pakistan chose to escalate further, focusing on Indian military targets.
“We are entering into a dangerous territory of escalation,” warned Brig Arun Sahgal, Director of the Forum for Strategic Initiatives, “if we start hitting military targets … conditions are changing … we are not sending just a signal of sending drones at each other … we are at step 3 of the escalation and this is uncharted territory.”
Brig Sehgal was a guest on The Gist, analysing the future path of the conflict. He pointed to international pressure on Pakistan with the Americans, Saudis and the British stepping in to try and persuade the Pakistanis to stop.
The problem here is the ineffectiveness of the Pakistani political establishment and the macho/muscular attitude of the largely Punjabi dominated army where the instinct is to act first and think later. This is where the escalation danger lies.
He wondered why the international community is yet to react to Pakistan’s threat of use of nuclear weapons, when they went over the top at Russian President Putin’s articulation of the same threat.
They should tell Pakistan “to stop warmongering, stop nuclear mongering, stop nuclear posturing, but this is not happening,” he regretted.
“How do we handle this plot going forward. This is going to be the sticky part. The management of Stage 3 of the escalation is going to be the sticky part.”
He says the point he has made to people in Pakistan, is that India’s position if nuclear weapons are used against it are very clear and nothing further need be said.
“You have seen the asymmetry in power. You have seen the asymmetry in capacity and the asymmetry in capability and we are only selling what is outside the shop. There’s plenty more inside.”
Tune in for more in this conversation with Brig Arun Sehgal on the escalation dynamics of the India’s war on Pakistan backed terrorism.
