Pakistan would have been shocked by India’s decision to “keep in abeyance” the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, says Sharat Sabharwal, former Indian high commissioner to that country.
“It’s a bit of a shock at the people’s level,” he said, “and I’m told even at the government level. As a lower riparian this treaty is very dear to them, a treaty which continued to work through the two wars of 1965 and ’71, is suddenly not functional.”
Sabharwal was a guest on The Gist, analysing the possible impact of the package of measures announced last night after the meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security.
But then he pointed out that the suspension is also symbolic as there is no infrastructure in India to stop the flow of the Indus, Jhelum or Chenab to Pakistan. For that matter, even the Sutlej waters meant for India’s exclusive use, also flow into Pakistan for the same reason: lack of infrastructure in the form of dams or reservoirs.
“India could reduce the quantities of water flowing into Pakistan during the crop-sowing season. This has been one of their worries as we have had acquired limited capacity to do so with various run of the river hydroelectric projects.”
Pakistan could then try and mobilise lower riparian countries from Bangladesh at one end to Egypt, Sudan and others.
“Our diplomacy will have to manage that,” Sabharwal said, “and by trying to use water as an instrument of coercion against Pakistan we may have also ended up setting an example for our own upper riparian, which is China.”
He indicated that while there is little or no bilateral trade except indirectly through Dubai, what could be hit is the transit trade from Afghanistan.
As for the ban on visas, Pakistani’s can still fly into India with valid visas. All that has been stopped are the SAARC visas.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Sharat Sabharwal, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan.
