Add a layer to Israel’s war in Gaza and you get Iran, where the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh has been deeply humiliating. Whether Israel did it as is widely suspected or it was an “inside job” is still not clear but an escalation would be as politically convenient in Tehran as in Tel Aviv.
Former diplomat and Arabist Mahesh Sachdev believes that whatever form the escalation of the current war takes, it would help Iran’s clerical leadership and its allies to rally support from a public increasingly disenchanted with foreign adventures.
“Iranians are a very proud and nationalistic people,” Ambassador Sachdev said on The Gist programme. “Recall the war with Iraq that went on for eight years or US sanctions that have gone on for even longer, they did not bend or break.”
This time however, a long war may lead to other fissures in Iran given the sense that the clerical regime is not riding high on popular support.
In Tel Aviv, the prolongation of Israel’s war has helped Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continue in office. Otherwise, he may have fallen given that the current war began with last October’s Hamas attack, on his watch. His failure to bring back all the surviving hostages is another blot on his record.
President Joe Biden has rushed naval and other military assets to the region in a public show of support for Israel. But he is a lame duck president and if the streets and universities at home are any indication, many of his own people don’t share his sentiments about the Jewish state.
Many are Muslims and their numbers maybe reaching a point where they can influence local politicians and institutions. It could be a disturbing moment of truth for America and Americans.
India is outside looking in, aghast at the instability the war is generating through the region. As always, for India the safety of its eight million-plus diaspora is a major concern. Then comes energy supplies. Any escalation is a horrifying prospect.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Ambassador Mahesh Sachdev.
