Home Neighbours Afghanistan India “Strategically Constrained” Pakistan During Op. Sindoor: Arun Sahgal

India “Strategically Constrained” Pakistan During Op. Sindoor: Arun Sahgal

After having suffered a bloody nose during Operation Sindoor, Pakistan is reaching out to the international audience with the message that the next attack by India could be its last
By
Surya Gangadharan
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In the months since Operation Sindoor, the Pakistani establishment has brought out a book titled Strategic Reckoning: Perspectives on Deterrence & Escalation Post-Pahaglam. Running over 20 chapters, it includes articles and analysis by a cross-section of scholars, senior military officers and diplomats.

It’s all part of what’s called “narrative building”, says Brig Arun Sahgal, head of the Forum for Security Initiatives. In an interview on The Gist, Sahgal says “This is a Pakistani narrative for two reasons. One is self-congratulatory, as you rightly pointed out. And second is it is aimed at the international audience.”

The critical points the book makes, he says, is that India’s aggressive posture is impacting the established norms of stability. Second, they’re trying to put across that it is Pakistan which is the responsible stakeholder. It’s response to the initial attacks by India was it claims “calibrated”, because it did not go down the full route, meaning threatening the use of nuclear weapons.

One of the articles is written by Khalid Kidwai, seen as providing the doctrinal thinking underpinning its nuclear arsenal. His argument is basically seen as seeking to reassure the Pakistani public that if pressed by India beyond a point, Islamabad will resort to “full spectrum deterrence”, meaning nuclear weapons.

Such deterrence comes in two forms: one is tactical deterrence that involve the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons.  The other is the long range strategic tools that they have to deter India.

The problem here is India has prised open that space by degrading their air defences followed up by massive strikes on May 9th and 10th, “that did not make any distinction incidentally between civilian infrastructure and military infrastructure and even civilian habitations.”

So what does Pakistan do now that its bluff has been called?  The book gives the impression the generals will seek to escalate. But Pakistan is a “constrained player” here, argues Brig Sahgal. He is constrained by the “third umpire” (US) who will always prevent them from acting in a rash manner.

Tune in for more in this conversation with Brig Arun Sahgal of the Forum for Security Initiatives.

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Thirty eight years in journalism, widely travelled, history buff with a preference for Old Monk Rum. Current interest/focus spans China, Technology and Trade. Recent reads: Steven Colls Directorate S and Alexander Frater's Chasing the Monsoon. Netflix/Prime video junkie. Loves animal videos on Facebook. Reluctant tweeter.

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