Bangladesh-Pakistan-China Nexus?
Is India keeping an eye on a possible Bangladesh-Pakistan-China nexus developing? India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri was in Dhaka on an official visit on December 9. He called on the Chief Adviser of the Interim Government of Bangladesh, Dr. Muhammad Yunus and the Foreign Affairs Adviser, Md. Touhid Hossain. He also held Foreign Office Consultations with the Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh Jashim Uddin. The Ministry of External Affairs said the Foreign Secretary among other things also discussed certain recent developments and issues and conveyed India’s concerns. What could some of those concerns be, especially a few years down the road?
India’s Concern: From Two To Three Fronts
On ‘The Gist’, Air Marshal D.K. Patnaik (Retd), former Air Officer Commanding-in-Chief (AOCinC), Eastern Air Command (EAC), Indian Air Force highlights his concerns in this conversation with StratNews Global’s Amitabh P. Revi. He speaks about the “changes post August 5th”, when Sheikh Hasina was forced out of power and fled her country. The Air Marshal reveals that “discussions had taken place at higher levels (of India’s armed forces) on potential situations when a friendly Bangladesh, becomes either a hostile, semi hostile or unfriendly state”. He refers to calls in Bangladesh to revive support for insurgent groups in India’s northeast and of Pakistan’s increased footprint in that country.
Pakistan’s Military Supplies
The former AOC-in-C EAC refers to the docking of a ship from Karachi at Chittagong port for the first time since the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Though portrayed as a major bilateral trade development, there are reports of containers with secret contents. Air Marshal Patnaik points out a major increase in Pakistani arms supplies to Bangladesh. These include 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 2,000 units of tank ammunition, 40 tons of RDX explosives, and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles from Pakistan’s Ordnance Factories (POF). He also brings to attention calls within Bangladesh to procure the joint Pakistan-China produced JF-17 multi role combat aircraft. Anti-India voices have also been urging increased Bangladesh-Pakistan nuclear ties.
Pak-China Co-produced JF-17 Jets
He says he “wouldn’t be surprised if, maybe in the next year or so, they will negotiate to have the JF-17s operating from Bangladesh in the next four or five years”. With the Indian Air Force’s depleting fighter jet strength, he “urges our government to start processing the MRFA (114 Multi role fighter aircraft), so that procurement which takes 3 to 4 years is in place. It is the deterrent quotient which will stop any misadventures, whether it is China, Pakistan or could be even Bangladesh”.
Chicken’s Neck Criticality
Air Marshal Patnaik also points out the strategically critical “chicken’s neck (Siliguri corridor) is only 22 kilometres wide. And all movement, whether by air or ground has to happen in the 22 kilometer corridor. Any input as to what movement is happening was, by and large, not as the Chinese would want it to be. That is primarily because of high hill feature terrains. Even if they had, say, a radar position, they were not getting the exact figures. However, this side (Bangladesh front) is a completely plain area. One or two radars positioned there will increase Chinese awareness. Especially if Bangladesh turns from a friendly country to a hostile, a near hostile or unfriendly one.
Watch ‘The Gist’ for Air Marshal Patnaik’s insights into the potential dangers of a two front situation becoming a three front one and how India should keep up its deterrence quotient.
