NEW DELHI: Indiaโs Defence Minister Rajnath Singhโs 140 minute talks with his Chinese counterpart General Wei Fanghe in Moscow on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting are more important for โwhat is said in private rather than public,โ says Ravi Agrawal, Managing Editor, Foreign Policy. Thatโs where, he adds โtheyโll have honest conversations, be able to make concessionsโ away from all the โmuscular messaging.โ Leaders on both sides need to โseizeโ these kinds of โdiplomatic opportunitiesโ rather than having to โcarve out such (bilateral)meetings,โ Professor M. Taylor Fravel, Director, Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT) Security Studies Programme says in agreement. Speaking on Talking Point with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi, the Professor says the latest standoff in Ladakh is โIndia deciding to seize the initiative by taking several peaks in an effort to gain some bargaining advantage in negotiationsโ. Agrawal concurs, saying, โit was important to be proactive and change the dynamics to trade in talksโ after being โbehind the eight ball from the startโ with โreactive responses so farโ.
With rounds of negotiations resulting in little agreement, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor, MIT, points out โtalks would ultimately have to occur at a higher level or be at the direction of more senior Chinese leaders. He feels Indiaโs โpreemptiveโ moves on the ground in Ladakh โmay be a way to get Chinaโs attention โ and to indicate โIndia is serious about the demands it has put forward and eager to raise the level of the talksโ. China is playing โcatch up on this particular incidentโ and official statements are โreactiveโ seemingly acknowledging Beijing has been โcaught off guard,โ Agrawal says, pointing to spokespersons โimprovisingโ in their response to questions.
Professor Fravel, Author of โActive Defense: Chinaโs Military Strategy Since 1949โ, warns this may just be โthe start of a spiralโ as China may decide to โescalate and occupy other vacant territory elsewhere in other sectors or make a move against Arunachal Pradesh,โ adding, โthe music may not have stoppedโ. Agrawal, the author of โIndia Connectedโ, also cautions the media and those telling the story against โa rise in jingoistic sentimentsโ, saying both sides must have โoff-rampsโ to allow a disengagement and de-escalation.