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Indiaโ€™s LAC Moves Show Eagerness To Raise Political Level Of Talks: China Analyst Taylor Fravel

NEW DELHI: Indiaโ€™s Defence Minister Rajnath Singhโ€™s 140 minute talks with his Chinese counterpart General Wei Fanghe in Moscow on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting are more important for โ€œwhat is said in private rather than public,โ€ says Ravi Agrawal, Managing Editor, Foreign Policy. Thatโ€™s where, he adds โ€œtheyโ€™ll have honest conversations, be able to make concessionsโ€ away from all the โ€œmuscular messaging.โ€ Leaders on both sides need to โ€œseizeโ€ these kinds of โ€œdiplomatic opportunitiesโ€ rather than having to โ€œcarve out such (bilateral)meetings,โ€ Professor M. Taylor Fravel, Director, Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT) Security Studies Programme says in agreement. Speaking on Talking Point with StratNews Global Associate Editor Amitabh P. Revi, the Professor says the latest standoff in Ladakh is โ€œIndia deciding to seize the initiative by taking several peaks in an effort to gain some bargaining advantage in negotiationsโ€. Agrawal concurs, saying, โ€œit was important to be proactive and change the dynamics to trade in talksโ€ after being โ€œbehind the eight ball from the startโ€ with โ€œreactive responses so farโ€.

With rounds of negotiations resulting in little agreement, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor, MIT, points out โ€œtalks would ultimately have to occur at a higher level or be at the direction of more senior Chinese leaders. He feels Indiaโ€™s โ€˜preemptiveโ€™ moves on the ground in Ladakh โ€œmay be a way to get Chinaโ€™s attention โ€ and to indicate โ€œIndia is serious about the demands it has put forward and eager to raise the level of the talksโ€. China is playing โ€œcatch up on this particular incidentโ€ and official statements are โ€œreactiveโ€ seemingly acknowledging Beijing has been โ€œcaught off guard,โ€ Agrawal says, pointing to spokespersons โ€œimprovisingโ€ in their response to questions.

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Professor Fravel, Author of โ€˜Active Defense: Chinaโ€™s Military Strategy Since 1949โ€™, warns this may just be โ€œthe start of a spiralโ€ as China may decide to โ€œescalate and occupy other vacant territory elsewhere in other sectors or make a move against Arunachal Pradesh,โ€ adding, โ€œthe music may not have stoppedโ€. Agrawal, the author of โ€˜India Connectedโ€™, also cautions the media and those telling the story against โ€œa rise in jingoistic sentimentsโ€, saying both sides must have โ€œoff-rampsโ€ to allow a disengagement and de-escalation.