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Ties With U.S. Consequential But India Must Keep Eyes Wide Open: Vijay Gokhale
The National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration last month focuses on U.S. foreign policy, often described by the current dispensation as realistic. Trump’s national security strategy introduces a healthy dose of realism, says former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale.
The strategy says it is necessary for the U.S. to prioritise which regions, issues and countries it wishes to be involved in. “It is flexible realism as the U.S. cannot be involved everywhere. And I think it introduces a breath of fresh air into American approach globally, Gokhale told StratNews Global.
Rebalancing, Trump Style
The strategy also factors in some amount of rebalancing. The priority earlier given to U.S. military capability is now subordinated to building economic power and keeping the technological edge, the former diplomat adds. This keeps pace with the fact that China now dominates global manufacturing (30 per cent). The U.S. ranks a distant second (18 per cent). So how should India approach the American policy that will emanate from the national security strategy? India’s partnership with the U.S. is consequential but with caveats, according to Vijay Gokhale. “India should go into it with its eyes wide open.”
Ideological Shift
He points to another key element—the ideological narrative has shifted in America. “It’s no longer the free world versus dictatorships. Or let us promote democracy abroad. It is now the West versus the rest. Let us promote Western civilization abroad.”
And this can affect India in the context of India-Pakistan relations. The national security strategy says the U.S. will be concerned by the affairs of other countries ‘only if their activities directly threaten our interests’. “In other words, Pakistan’s terrorist activities, so long as they do not threaten the continental United States, is not of America’s concern,” says Gokhale.
The document also talks of ‘maintaining good relations with countries whose governing systems and societies differ from ours’. Gokhale’s takeaway: “So we (U.S.) don’t care if there is democracy in Pakistan; we don’t care if General or Field Marshal Munir is now in the ascendant and democracy is sinking, so long as they do not affect our (U.S.) core interests.”
The ideological shift is bad news for India in terms of India-Pakistan relations, reasons Gokhale, “because neither our concerns or terrorism nor our concerns of democracy will resonate in the Washington Beltway.”
Tune in to this conversation where Vijay Gokhale also talks about the U.S. salience on the Indo-Pacific, its China approach and why India does not need to lose heart.
Hong Kong Leader Discusses Jimmy Lai Verdict with Xi Jinping
Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee said on Tuesday that he had discussed the conviction of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, a day after Lai was found guilty of colluding with foreign forces under the city’s national security law.
Xi Urges Continued Focus on National Security
Lee did not disclose how Xi responded to Lai’s verdict but said the Chinese leader encouraged Hong Kong authorities to continue strengthening efforts to safeguard national security. “President Xi expressed full support for Hong Kong’s work to maintain stability and security,” Lee told reporters after the meeting.
The case has drawn global scrutiny over Hong Kong’s judicial independence and the state of civil liberties in the financial hub, which has seen sweeping political changes since Beijing imposed the National Security Law in 2020 following mass pro-democracy protests in 2019.
Lee Criticises Foreign Media Coverage
Lee accused some international media organisations of misleading the public in their coverage of Lai’s conviction. “Some organisations, particularly foreign media, deliberately whitewash Lai’s criminal acts,” he said. “Their objective is to obscure his shameless conduct and subversive actions as an agent of external forces who sought to infiltrate and brainwash young people.”
Lai, aged 78, is the founder of the now-defunct Apple Daily, once Hong Kong’s most prominent pro-democracy newspaper. His supporters see him as a symbol of resistance and press freedom, while Beijing regards him as a key instigator of the 2019 protests and a conspirator who encouraged foreign sanctions against China and Hong Kong.
Widespread International Reaction
Foreign governments and human rights groups have criticised Lai’s conviction, calling it politically motivated and emblematic of the erosion of freedoms guaranteed under Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” framework. Beijing, however, insists the prosecution is a legitimate enforcement of law and order.
As the high-profile case continues to reverberate internationally, Lee reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to upholding the national security law, saying it was essential for Hong Kong’s long-term stability and prosperity.
(with inputs from Reuters)
Modi’s Oman Visit: Laying The Ground For Comprehensive Engagement
At a little over three hours by air, Delhi to Muscat roughly parallels the time taken from Delhi to domestic locations in southern or eastern India. One expects that the Delhi-Muscat route could become more crowded once the two countries put their seal on the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CEPA).
In an analysis, Anil Wadhwa, former ambassador to oil-rich Oman (2007-11), wrote “Multiple reports suggest that negotiators have narrowed differences on market access and rules of origin. The Omani cabinet and the Shura Council have reviewed the agreement … it would mark a calibrated move from ad hoc commercial links to deeper rules-based economic integration with a strategically located partner.”
The CEPA has been under negotiation since Nov 2023 and all indications are the honours will be done on Thursday. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and key officials of his ministry have already reached Muscat.
“Beyond trade the strategic focus is the Port of Duqm,” argues Ausaf Sayeed, former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia (2019-22), writing in West Asia Review.
“With IMEC facing delays due to regional instability and Gulf states pushing ahead with an ‘Arab-European’ rail link via the new Doha-Riyadh line, India risks being bypassed. Deepening naval access to Duqm gives India a logistical hub outside the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, ensuring an independent maritime flank in the Western Indian Ocean.”
Sayeed believes India is working on an “Indo-Littoral Strategy” that has been framed to ensure its interests remain secure after recent developments in the Persian Gulf: Saudi Arabia and the US have come closer with Riyadh being desgnated a Non-Nato Ally.
Add to that, the Saudis and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement in September this year. While the two have long had a defence understanding, including the stationing of Pakistani troops on Saudi soil, the new agreement brings with it a nuclear element.
Is Pakistan extending a nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia? Does that mean it could get involved in conflicts in the region, or against Israel? What about the Saudis supplying the Pakistanis with some of the high tech stuff they are getting from Uncle Sam? There’s been no clarity on how things could go.
Sayeed believes Modi’s swing through Jordan, Ethiopia and now Oman is driven by the above concerns and by the need to shore up India’s position in a volatile but crucial region.
The two day visit to Jordan (Mon-Tue), Ethiopia (Wednesday) and Oman (Thursday) is to fortify an “outer ring of partnerships”. Jordan is the “continental buffer, Ethiopia is the “African anchor” while Oman is the “maritime fortress”.
India is acting not as a passive balancer, writes Sayeed, “but as a prudent, interest-driven architect engaging diverse power centres while preserving strategic flexibility. The durability of this approach amid West Asia’s ongoing turbulence will be tested in the coming years.”
South Korea Convicts Contractors In Taiwan Submarine Leak
A South Korean court convicted two contractors from Taiwan’s submarine program of leaking torpedo-launch system designs, warning the case could pose a “diplomatic burden” for Seoul, according to a ruling seen by Reuters.
On Tuesday, the Masan Branch of the Changwon District Court sentenced the chief executive of one South Korean contractor to two and a half years in jail and handed down jail terms of one and a half years to two employees of another firm, according to the ruling.
The defendants, who were hired to build torpedo-launching tubes and storage for Taiwan’s submarine project, were accused of leaking highly classified information on designs to Taiwan, the ruling said.
The court said the case risked becoming a “major diplomatic burden” for South Korea.
“This crime is a matter that could pose a significant threat to South Korea’s security, as strategic technology was exported without the approval of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), and the export partner is Taiwan, which has a tense relationship with neighbours in East Asia,” the ruling said.
DAPA is South Korea’s national arms-sales regulator.
Diplomatic and Security Concerns
South Korea, like most countries, only has formal diplomatic ties with Beijing, not Taipei. China views the island as its own territory, a position Taipei’s government rejects.
The defendants denied wrongdoing and argued that the information they shared with Taiwan did not involve business secrets or sensitive technology requiring export permits, the ruling said.
Taiwan’s Submarine Push
Taiwan’s defence ministry referred questions on the case to CSBC, the Taiwanese shipbuilder that is leading the construction of the submarines. CSBC did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Taiwan is seeking to build eight submarines, but the programme has been hit by delays. The prototype’s maiden sea trial took place in June.
Taiwan’s government has made military modernisation a key policy platform and has repeatedly pledged to spend more on its defence given the rising threat from China, including developing homegrown submarines.
Taiwan plans to boost defence spending by a fifth next year, surpassing 3% of gross domestic product, as it invests more in new equipment to better face China and convince the U.S. it is serious about building up its military.
In 2023, Reuters reported that South Korean authorities, citing the risk of Chinese economic retaliation, had charged a third Korean contractor for its work on Taiwan’s submarine project for violating trade laws. That contractor’s conviction has been overturned.
(With inputs from Reuters)
China Cracks Down As Tibetans Protest Gold Mining Project
Reports of mass arrests and a communications blackout following protests against a gold-mining project in a Tibetan village have intensified scrutiny of the environmental and political costs of China’s resource extraction on the Tibetan Plateau—an area increasingly central to global supply chains for renewable energy.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Chinese authorities arrested dozens of Tibetans in early November after residents of Kashi village in the western Chinese province of Sichuan, protested the start of a gold mine in pastureland traditionally used by nomads to graze sheep and yaks.
The protests began after villagers learned that mining had commenced at a site known locally as Serkog, or “Gold Valley.” The Journal cited accounts collected from residents by Tibetans in exile and corroborated by the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamshala, though it said it could not independently verify the claims.
Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha, Deputy Director of Tibet Policy Institute in Delhi, who is familiar with developments in the area said the situation on the ground has been “very serious,” particularly in Zachukha in eastern Tibet. “The Chinese government sent gold miners there, and the local Tibetans resisted this, which led to a confrontation,” he said, adding that around 80 Tibetans were detained. “Many were later released due to illness—some with broken ribs, some with damaged kidneys.”
He also told SratnewsGlobal that at least seven local Tibetans remain missing, with families unable to obtain information about their whereabouts.
The crackdown has reportedly intensified following international media coverage. “After the Wall Street Journal released its report, the Chinese government carried out intensified home-to-home searches to find who leaked information,” the expert said. “Surveillance has increased, and the situation has become worse than before.”
The incident reflects a broader pattern. “There have been many protests in Tibet against mining and dam construction,” Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha noted, pointing out that Tibet is rich in lithium and copper—resources central to China’s energy transition. “Much of China’s lithium and copper comes from Tibet, but local Tibetans do not benefit at all. The ecological destruction is extreme.”
Mining remains especially contentious because of the plateau’s fragility. “The Tibetan Plateau is one of the largest and highest plateaus on earth,” the expert said. “Any damage to its ecology will have implications for India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and even China itself. This is a very sensitive zone.”
As global demand for “green” minerals accelerates, the events in Kashi highlight the human and environmental costs borne by communities living at the source of those supply chains.
Australia Lifts Inflation Forecast, Keeps Spending High
Australia’s government on Wednesday sharply raised its inflation forecast but it still added to its annual spending plans, leaving monetary policy to counter rising cost pressures.
In its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), the Treasury boosted its forecast for inflation to 3.75% in the current year ending June 2026 to reflect the recent price surge, up from 3% in its main budget last March.
That drove forecasts for nominal gross domestic product (GDP) sharply higher to a whopping 5.25% this financial year, a strong result that would lift tax receipts by A$15 billion.
However, that was offset by a A$9.1 billion increase in payments, which left the budget deficit only a little smaller than previously projected at A$36.8 billion ($24.39 billion).
“While inflation has increased recently, this is similar to the experiences in many advanced economies and is partly due to temporary factors,” said the Treasury.
“However, the increase in services inflation and prices of newly constructed dwellings could be more persistent, and are in line with the sustained recovery in demand.”
Monetary Policy Challenges
The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates three times this year to 3.6% but a recent spike in inflation – with the monthly headline measure surging to 3.8% in October – has forced policymakers to warn that rate hikes might be needed next year.
Two of the four major banks – the National Australia Bank and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia – are now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates in February next year. NAB even called for a second hike in May.
Westpac on Wednesday also abandoned its rate cut calls, saying it now sees rates on hold throughout 2026.
Fiscal Balance and Growth
Treasury expects economic growth to pick up to 2.25% in the financial year, largely unchanged from before. However, that is still above the RBA’s estimates of trend growth of 2% and could generate more inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate is seen edging up slightly to a peak of 4.5%, from 4.25% before.
The Treasury projected a deficit of A$36.8 billion for the current 2025/26 year. That compared with a forecast of A$42.1 billion in its pre-election Budget last March, but came above forecasts of about A$32 billion by analysts.
The projected deficit for the three years to 2028/29 is now A$106.6 billion, more or less what was expected in March.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Amazon in Talks to Invest $10 Billion in OpenAI
Amazon.com Inc is reportedly in discussions to invest around $10 billion in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, in a deal that could value the artificial intelligence company at more than $500 billion, according to a source familiar with the matter.
A Strategic Move in the AI Race
The talks between the two companies remain “very fluid,” the source said, requesting anonymity as the discussions are private. The potential deal underscores the growing competition among tech giants to secure computing power and dominance in artificial intelligence, as the race to develop systems that can match or surpass human capabilities accelerates.
Earlier this year, OpenAI struck several multi-billion-dollar partnerships with technology firms including Nvidia and Oracle. In November, the AI developer also agreed to a $38 billion deal to purchase cloud services from Amazon, further deepening their collaboration.
Balancing Growth and Investor Caution
Despite the sector’s rapid growth, investors are becoming cautious, watching closely for signs that demand for AI technology may be slowing or that the vast investments are not delivering the expected returns. The ongoing talks between Amazon and OpenAI come as the AI firm prepares for an initial public offering, which could value it at up to $1 trillion, Reuters reported in October.
The discussions highlight OpenAI’s growing ability to attract a range of partners since moving away from its non-profit structure and formalising its partnership with Microsoft. That arrangement transformed OpenAI into a public benefit corporation, enabling it to raise funds more freely while retaining its social mission.
Expanding Partnerships and Future Plans
Microsoft currently owns a 27% stake in OpenAI and holds exclusive rights to offer OpenAI models to its cloud customers. While OpenAI, Amazon and Microsoft have not yet commented publicly on the reported talks, The Information—first to report the negotiations—said OpenAI plans to use Amazon’s Trainium chips, which compete with those made by Nvidia and Google.
The report added that Amazon’s potential investment could pave the way for a larger fundraising round involving other investors. Additionally, OpenAI is reportedly considering selling an enterprise version of ChatGPT to Amazon, though it remains uncertain whether the deal will include integrating ChatGPT-powered shopping features into Amazon’s platforms.
(with inputs from Reuters)
Asim Munir Faces U.S. Pressure Over Gaza Troops
Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir faces his toughest test as Washington urges troop deployment to Gaza—a move analysts warn could spark backlash.
Asim Munir is expected to fly to Washington to meet President Donald Trump in the coming weeks for a third meeting in six months that will likely focus on the Gaza force, two sources told Reuters, one of them a key player in the general’s economic diplomacy.
Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan calls for a force from Muslim nations to oversee a transition period for reconstruction and economic recovery in the war-torn Palestinian territory, decimated by over two years of Israeli military bombardment.
Many nations fear that disarming Hamas could entangle them in conflict and anger pro-Palestinian publics. Yet Munir has cultivated ties with Trump, earning a rare solo White House lunch in June—the first ever for a Pakistani army chief.
‘Pressure To Deliver’
Pakistan, the world’s only Muslim country with nuclear weapons, has tackled insurgencies in its far-flung regions and is currently embroiled in a bruising war with Islamist militants who it says are operating from Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s military strength means “there is a greater pressure on Munir to deliver his capacity,” said author and defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa.
Pakistan’s military, foreign office and information ministry did not respond to questions from Reuters. The White House also did not respond to a request for a comment.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said last month that Islamabad could consider contributing troops for peacekeeping but disarming Hamas “is not our job.”
The Home Front Risk
Over the past few weeks, Munir has met military and civilian leaders from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and Qatar, according to the military’s statements, which Siddiqa said appeared to be consultations on the Gaza force.
But the big concern at home is that the involvement of Pakistan troops in Gaza under a U.S.-backed plan could re-ignite protests from Pakistan’s Islamist parties that are deeply opposed to the U.S. and Israel.
A powerful and violentanti-Israel Islamist party that fights for upholding Pakistan’s ultra-strict blasphemy laws was banned in October.
Authorities arrested its leaders and over 1,500 supporters and seized its assets and bank accounts in an ongoing crackdown, officials said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Japan’s Tourism Boom Persists Despite Diplomatic Rift with China
Japan’s tourism sector continued its strong recovery in November despite a diplomatic spat with China that briefly dampened travel sentiment. According to the Japan National Tourism Organisation (JNTO), visitor arrivals rose 10.4% year-on-year in November to 3.52 million, bringing the total for 2025 to over 39 million already surpassing the record 36.87 million visitors in 2024.
Chinese Visitor Growth Slows Amid Travel Warning
While overall numbers remain robust, growth in arrivals from mainland China has slowed sharply. The JNTO reported a modest 3% rise in Chinese visitors in November, a steep decline compared with the 37.5% growth recorded across the year up to that point.
The slowdown follows a diplomatic dispute sparked by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province. In response, China’s government urged citizens in mid-November to avoid travel to Japan. Several Chinese airlines soon offered free flight cancellations and refunds through the end of the year.
Tourism Stocks Hit but Travel Momentum Holds
The travel advisory sent shockwaves through Japan’s tourism-related equities. Shares of department store operator Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099.T) and Tokyo Disneyland owner Oriental Land (4661.T) fell sharply after the warning and have yet to fully recover.
Despite the market turbulence, mainland Chinese tourists continue to make up the largest share of Japan’s international visitors, accounting for nearly a quarter of total arrivals so far in 2025. Industry analysts say Japan’s appeal boosted by a weak yen, relaxed visa procedures, and a broad rebound in global tourism has kept demand resilient.
Record-Breaking Year for Japanese Tourism
With one month remaining, Japan is on track for a record-breaking tourism year. Strong inflows from South Korea, Taiwan, the United States, and Southeast Asia have helped offset the slowdown from China.
Travel analysts suggest that while geopolitical tensions may create temporary dips, Japan’s tourism ecosystem has diversified enough to maintain momentum. “The numbers show Japan’s visitor base is expanding beyond reliance on any single country,” said a Tokyo-based tourism economist.
Even amid strained China-Japan ties, the steady inflow of travellers underscores Japan’s growing status as one of Asia’s premier post-pandemic travel destinations.
(with inputs from Reuters)
Elon Musk’s X Corp Sues Startup Seeking to “Bring Twitter Back”
Elon Musk’s X Corp filed a lawsuit on Tuesday against a Virginia-based startup that has sought to cancel its Twitter trademarks in order to launch a rival platform called “twitter.new.” The case, brought in a Delaware federal court, accuses Operation Bluebird of trademark infringement and attempting to unlawfully claim rights to one of the world’s most recognisable brands.
X Defends Ownership of Twitter Brand
In its complaint, X said that its Twitter brand remains “alive and well” and that Bluebird’s effort to cancel the trademarks was an attempt to “steal” the name. “Twitter is one of the world’s most recognised brands, and it belongs to X Corp,” the filing stated. “Simply put, a rebrand is not an abandonment of trademark rights.”
The company argued that millions of users still access its platform through twitter.com, that both individuals and businesses continue to refer to it as Twitter, and that X actively maintains and enforces its existing trademarks.
Musk, who acquired Twitter in 2022 for $44 billion before rebranding it to X, had said in 2023 that the platform would “bid adieu to the Twitter brand and, gradually, all the birds.”
Bluebird Seeks to Reclaim the “Twitter” Name
Operation Bluebird filed a petition with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office on 2 December, claiming X had abandoned the Twitter name and asking regulators to cancel its trademarks. The startup said it intends to use the brand to “bring Twitter back” via a new social media network.
The petition was filed by Stephen Coates, a former Twitter trademark attorney who now serves as Bluebird’s general counsel. Bluebird also applied separately to register its own “Twitter” trademark.
“Our cancellation petition is based on well-established trademark law and we believe we will be successful,” Bluebird founder Michael Peroff said in a statement. “We are prepared to take this as far as we need to in order to achieve our goal.”
X Accuses Bluebird of Creating Confusion
X Corp said Bluebird’s attempt to resurrect Twitter would cause consumer confusion and infringe on its intellectual property rights. The company is seeking unspecified monetary damages and an injunction preventing Bluebird from using the Twitter name.
Spokespeople for X have not commented publicly on the lawsuit, while Bluebird maintains that Musk’s 2023 rebranding demonstrates abandonment under U.S. trademark law. The case is expected to test how far a company can go in rebranding a globally recognised mark without forfeiting its legal protection.
(with inputs from Reuters)