Has Rick Switzer, US Deputy Trade Representative, come to India to read the riot act about the logistics deal with Russia?
Economist and commentator Prof Jeffrey Sachs described his visit as a “strategic alarm bell disguised as a trade mission. The visit arrives at an extraordinary moment precisely when India and Russia are consolidating a new architecture of energy, logistics and defence that threatens to redraw the strategic map of the Indo-Pacific.”
In a commentary online, Sachs believes the US fears losing India officially. It senses India drifting towards Moscow by structural commitments. The RELOS military logistics pact for one, assured supplies of crude oil and an emerging financial ecosystem that quietly bypasses Western channels.
“Washington’s sudden outreach to Delhi is not routine diplomacy,” says Sachs. “For months the US has watched India’s deepening relationship with Russia with growing unease .. India’s growing dependence on Russian oil, weapons, military logistics has reached a level that Washington considers a strategic threat.”
Washington wants to halt that drift before it becomes irreversible. Switzer is here to convey that India’s drift towards Russia has crossed from “tolerable to dangerous” and if it wants relief from tariffs and sanctions, it must “reconsider the pace and depth of your Moscow alignment.”
The signal is that the US wants India as a democratic counterweight to China, “not as an extension of a Russia led Eurasian system.”
The dilemma for India is that Russian support helps build resilience for the Indian economy. But India also needs capital and technology that flow from the US. The problem, as Sachs says, is that the US does not see this as a negotiation but a geopolitical confrontation over India’s future orientation.
“India must decide whether strategic autonomy is a principle worth paying a price for or a doctrine that collapses the moment great powers push back.”
The US fears India is building infra in the Indian Ocean with Russian help that will alter the balance of power in the Indian Ocean. RELOS will enable Russian vessels to repair, replenish and resupply at Indian bases and will undermine the US in the Indian Ocean.
Russia will probably see the Switzer mission as an attempt to detach India from Moscow before RELOS becomes operational and fresh crude supplies are locked into place. Russia sees India as the only major non-Western power ready to engage with it.
It can therefore be expected to double down on India, offering not only discounted oil but joint development of advanced weapons. Both bring not only revenue but enable Russia to balance its dependence on China. Russia has already committed to help India expand on its Arctic ambitions.
The question Indian diplomats are asking: is the US offering a way out? Or does it see coercion through tariffs as the only tool to get its way?
Thirty eight years in journalism, widely travelled, history buff with a preference for Old Monk Rum. Current interest/focus spans China, Technology and Trade. Recent reads: Steven Colls Directorate S and Alexander Frater's Chasing the Monsoon. Netflix/Prime video junkie. Loves animal videos on Facebook. Reluctant tweeter.
