The flames of a wider war with U.S.-Pakistan on one side and Iran on the other appear to be gathering over the Persian Gulf.
In this chat on StratNewsGlobal, former diplomat Mahesh Sachdev, an Arabist who headed the WANA (West Asia North Africa) Division of the External Affairs Ministry, analyses the situation in the light of the “private lunch” hosted by U.S. President Trump for Pakistan army chief Gen Asim Munir.
In some ways, it looks like U.S.-Pakistan is on with Islamabad being courted by Washington to play against Iran, the kind of role it did against Afghanistan not so many years ago.
Ambassador Sachdev points to the Iran-Pakistan border in Balochistan, which resembles in many respects the Durand Line that separates Pakistan from Afghanistan. He notes that both have had testy exchanges across this border, Iran targeting the Jundullah movement and Pakistan the Baloch Liberation Army.
The curious part of this is the focus of Iran, which has always been towards its west, to the Gulf Arab states, towards Central Asia and onwards. Trade with Pakistan on the east is low, oil flowing from Iran and some rice being exported from Pakistan.
Not to forget the sectarian factor: Iran is majority Shia with significant other minorities including Sunnis, Kurds and so on. Pakistan too has a 15% Shia minority that is the target of discrimination and frequent violence.
In his view, Iran is weak even if it has built up a modest arsenal of missiles to deter. There are also proxies it has supported in the form of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon all the way up to Syria, where it was the strongest backer of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
He says the clerical regime in Iran has grown deep roots in the country and regime by U.S.-Pakistan with others won’t be easy. For that matter, there are indications that Israel’s bombing of Iran has ignited Iranian nationalism, and even those who hate the regime will still rally to the cause of their nation.
Tune in for more in this interview with Ambassador Mahesh Sachdev.
