Taiwan emergency is a Japan emergency, said Shinzo Abe, late Japanese prime minister. So any potential Chinese attack on Taiwan is a “survival threatening situation” for Tokyo, which may get drawn into the conflict to defend Taiwan?
StratNewsGlobal learns that would not be the case. Media reports and scholarly writings across East Asia say what Japan does depends on how the US is involved in the situation.
If the US is involved in the defence of Taiwan, then Japan does nothing. Or it could be that Japan steps in to help the US. But if the US does not step in to defend Taiwan then Japan has no choice but stay away. The sense is China understands this but deliberately distorts or misinterprets for its own purposes.
Clearly, Japan needs to build up its capabilities and thereby reduce or limit the chances of China making a move on Taiwan. Tokyo has to build economic resilience first and reduce its dependence on the US. Tokyo also needs to build military muscle.
The economic and military dependence on the US is what compelled Tokyo to promise that it would invest $550 billion in that country. Japan does not have the luxury of distancing itself from the US.
Last year, Japan’s exports to the US were over $140 billion, much of it comprised automobiles and spare parts followed by electrical machinery including nuclear reactors and boilers, and of course electronics.
Japan also needs the US for its own security. Tokyo needs to keep the US in East Asia to balance the power of China. Japan also needs the US to help build its deterrence capabilities in the form of air and missile defence and and secure its seaward approaches.
In that sense, the National Security Strategy announced by the US has been slightly disconcerting with the focus on the southern hemisphere. It would seem the US would prefer its allies and partners in Asia to lead the challenge against China while it plays a supportive role from behind.
Thirty eight years in journalism, widely travelled, history buff with a preference for Old Monk Rum. Current interest/focus spans China, Technology and Trade. Recent reads: Steven Colls Directorate S and Alexander Frater's Chasing the Monsoon. Netflix/Prime video junkie. Loves animal videos on Facebook. Reluctant tweeter.
