As the peripatetic S Jaishankar heads to Moscow for talks to lay the ground for President Putin’s visit to Delhi (maybe in September), it’s interesting to reflect that there doesn’t appear to be any plan to invest in new Russian military hardware.
One is not talking of what is already in the pipeline, such as the two remaining S-400 ballistic missile defence regiments or reports that Chakra-III, a nuclear-powered attack submarine is in the final stages of being leased to the Indian Navy.
Naval sources confirmed that Russia’s offer of the Amur diesel electric submarine has not found favour. Apparently the preference is for the German firm Thyssenkrup Marine’s offer of six conventional submarines with air independent propulsion.
The air force is looking at augmenting its fleet of French Rafale fighters, while the army, after decades of buying and using Russian artillery and tanks, is now working with the Indian private sector to design and build locally.
“The armed forces don’t want to go back to Russia,” a senior former diplomat told StratNewsGlobal,”it’s a good thing we are keeping our relations with Russia afloat but there’s no bounce from India when it comes to Russian equipment, although they keep proposing various things.”
“The problem is Russian technology,” said a retired naval officer, “Recall decades ago the Russians built their technological prowess by copying from Western designs, but from aircraft to semiconductor chips Russian tech has not been able to bridge the generation gap with the West.”
Does that mean Russia has nothing worthwhile to offer India? The former diplomat remarked rather caustically, that there was a time when the Russians had offered India a 5th generation fighter aircraft. But India wanted to co-develop and the Russians had already done much of the development. So that got nowhere.
“In five years, Pakistan will have a 5th generation fighter courtesy China,” he said, “then what do we do, where will we go. India has already rejected the US offer of the F-35 and while there are reports suggesting India’s interest in the Russian Su-57 fighter, it’s not clear if this is being pursued seriously.”
India’s own ambitious plan for the 5th gen AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), will not see fruition in the near term. Rather, given the issues with Donald Trump, there are growing doubts about the transfer of GE-F414 engine tech to India.
It explains the negotiations with French company Safran to develop a jet engine in India, where the IPR would be with India. This is a long term project and has its share of critics who wonder whether India should be spending money on this or look at the future and spend money on drones and robotic platforms and systems.
What’s clear is that while India may see diplomatic value in moving closer to Russia when relations with the US are so fraught, the interest in Russian military hardware is diminishing, something the political leadership in Moscow realises.
There’s something else. What happens if Friday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, produces a big beautiful deal on ending the Ukraine war with side deals on lifting curbs on Russian oil exports?
That could see Trump give up his plan to hike tariffs on India by another 25% for buying discounted Russian oil. It removes the sword of damocles hanging over India, but what about Russia?
Prior to its invasion of Ukraine, India-Russia bilateral trade was a pathetic $10 billion, according to figures cited by the Indian Embassy in Moscow. Post-Ukraine invasion, sales of discounted Russian oil to India saw bilateral trade shoot up to over $64 billion.
Minus that discount, India may have no interest in Russian oil since the energy available in the neighbourhood may be more affordable. With energy out of the equation, also defence, where is the Russia relationship going?
