“India-Taliban Budding Romance”, ran the title of an article in the Pakistani newspaper Dawn, penned by none other than Asif Durrani, former Pakistani special representative for Afghanistan.
“The uptick in India Afghanistan relations is a significant development,” Durrani writes, arguing that “those invoking Islamic sentiments about the Taliban may realise how realpolitik operates in diplomacy.
“This should serve as a lesson to those in Pakistan who were overly optimistic about the Taliban’s victory (in Afghanistan) and hurried to count their success. In realpolitik, ideology often takes a back seat to practical realities.”
The adage of “The enemy’s enemy is my friend”, seems at play in the budding relationship between the Taliban and the “RSS-led Modi government”, Durrani writes. This is described as “Modi’s pragmatic approach”, while the Taliban’s advances to India appear aimed at garnering more economic and humanitarian support.
India sees a “tactical chance” to secure its a foothold in Afghanistan and also enhance trade through Chahbahar Port in Iran (currently seeing low traffic due to high transportation costs).
India’s outreach to the Taliban, Durrani believes, is also to maintain its relevance in regional politics. India is a member of the Moscow Format that includes Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours and Russia. These countries have been providing subsistence level support to Kabul at a time when the West has shown little interest.
But he warns that the budding romance is “fraught with challenges.” India’s reliance on the US and Afghanistan’s on the quadrilateral group Pakistan-Russia-Iran-China (PRIC), poses significant obstacles to deeper engagement, he believes.
This would require Delhi to leverage its economic and technological strengths to carve out a meaningful role in Afghanistan and keep an eye on Pakistan. The Taliban would need to maintain a balanced foreign policy and avoid alienating regional players like Pakistan.
Summing up, Durrani believes Pakistan would need to carefully monitor “Indian machinations” to determine its future stance towards the theocratic regime in Kabul.
