The El Nino weather pattern that can cause extreme events such as wildfires and tropical cyclones is forecast to swing back into generally cooler La Nina conditions later this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.
El Nino is a naturally occurring warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, while La Nina is characterised by cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region and is linked to floods and drought.
WMO said there was a 60% chance that La Nina conditions would take hold between July to September, and a 70% chance of them occurring between August and November.
“The end of El Nino does not mean a pause in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.
“Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role during the next months.”
The past nine years have been the warmest on record despite the cooling effect of La Nina that spanned from 2020 to early 2023, according to WMO.
El Nino is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, La Nina — the antithesis — leads to plentiful rainfall during the monsoon. Last month, the India Meteorological Department had forecast above normal rain during the monsoon season in the country, with favourable El Nina conditions expected to set in by August-September.
Monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture, with 52% of net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs that supply drinking water for millions and also aid in power generation.
The last nine years have been the warmest on record even with the cooling influence of a multi-year El Nina from 2020 to early 2023. El Nino peaked in December 2023 as one of the five strongest on record.
La Nina conditions generally follow strong El Nino events, and this is in line with recent model predictions although high uncertainty remains regarding its strength or duration.
