Seventy five years after they invaded and occupied Tibet, the Chinese still remain insecure about their hold over the territory.
Jayadeva Ranade of the Centre for China Analysis & Strategy, a Delhi-based think tank, says “The Chinese authorities are applying a lot of pressure on Tibet, erasing Tibetan history and culture. I think they see Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia as their Achilles heel, these are problematic areas for them.”
The Communist Party of China is acutely aware that Xinjiang and Tibet together account for 40% of China. Any mass movement against Beijing’s authority could be catastrophic, giving scope for outside powers to intervene.
The Dalai Lama’s recent announcement that his successor will be reincarnated, and in an area that is not controlled by the Chinese, has probably upset Beijing even more. It means his reincarnated successor will be a credible rival to anyone they put up.
How could the reincarnated Dalai Lama behave with China? Would he be a hardliner, what if he decides to become aggressive or assertive on the rights of his homeland. It would mean a lot of problems for China given that the ethnic Tibetan population amounts to six million.
In that context, the Chinese experience with their choice of Panchen Lama has been singularly dismal, given that he has no credibility, either in Tibet or elsewhere.
Ranade acknowledges that the Tibetan issue, while it has drawn a lot of moral support internationally, has not resulted in any great pressure on China to relax its hold.
“China is a major country and the US has deep economic ties with China,” he noted, “the Chinese are also known to play hardball and that is a factor we need to keep in mind. And here it’s a question of breaking away an entity or a region from an established state.”
If some countries choose to engage in covert activity to destabilise China’s control over Tibet, it could be risking a lot, he said.
China will be watching closely the celebrations marking the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday on Sunday. While Dharamshala where the Tibetan administration is based, will merit close scrutiny, they will be even more apprehensive about Tibet:
Will Tibetans choose to quietly celebrate their exiled spiritual leader’s birthday or could they take their resentment and anger over so many years of Chinese occupation, to the streets?
