China’s PLA (People’s Liberation Army) can land troops on Taiwan within a week of imposing a naval blockade on the island, warns a Japanese government report that analysed Beijing’s military exercises last year.
The report summarised in Japan News, notes that while earlier the Japanese analysis projected a period of one month before China is able to put troops ashore on Taiwan, now the view is Beijing could deploy military formations operating in parallel, and land forces on the island well before the US is able to respond.
The Japanese analysis says any invasion of Taiwan will begin with a naval blockade, followed by missile attacks on military facilities and the insertion of military units by landing ships and transport helicopters to establish beachheads.
This will then be followed with the insertion of troops and tanks by landing vessels and large commercial cargo ships.
Such an operation would run into difficulty in the face of counterstrikes from the Taiwan side and US military intervention. So China’s PLA would try and seize control of the island before the main body of US forces get involved.
To guard against a US intervention, China could conduct hybrid warfare operations” involving armed attacks and cyberattacks on vital infrastructure.”
It’s not clear if the report is suggesting that China will carry out armed attacks on US military infrastructure.
What would be the role of Japan’s Self-Defense Force in this scenario?
Based on security related laws that came into effect in 2016, Tokyo will need to consider whether a Chinese invasion of Taiwan constitutes a situation that “has an important influence on Japan’s peace and security,” during which the Self-Defense Force can provide logistic support for US ships.
Or if it is a situation that “threatens Japan’s survival”, in which the Self-Defense Force would be allowed limited exercise of the right to collective self-defence.
