Ramzan has begun but the much touted ceasefire in Gaza is nowhere in sight. Joe Biden wants it, his top diplomat Antony Blinken has made too many visits to West Asia, speaking to various stakeholders, including the Saudis, the Qataris, the Palestinians and the Egyptians.
But Benjamin Netanyahu is holding firm, insisting and explaining that nothing less than a total victory against Hamas will do. Calling Hamas an existential threat to Israel, Netanyahu says lsraeli forces are close to victory and that every possible step is being taken to ensure civilians in Gaza don’t suffer.
Israel has allowed six trucks carrying humanitarian aid from the World Food Organisation to enter north Gaza. This was done to prevent Hamas from taking over the consignment, Israeli forces say.
World Central Kitchen, a non-profit, has dispatched a ship carrying 200 tonnes of aid from Cyprus.
And a jetty is being built here, at an undisclosed location in Gaza, where the consignment will be offloaded.
Biden has openly criticized Netanyahu’s approach to the Gaza war, saying it’s hurting Israel, an allegation Bibi has rejected.
But the US intelligence believes that confidence could be misplaced as Hamas won’t disappear in a hurry. Its annual threat assessment report for this year says Jerusalem remains focused on destroying Hamas, which its population broadly supports.
But Israel will probably face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come.
And the Israeli military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’ underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces.
The attacks by Hamas on Israel in October last year and Israel’s military response in Gaza has heightened regional tensions, with Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis upping the ante.
International pressure on Israel is mounting as the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza escalates. Iranian-backed attacks will jeopardize stability in Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf, and the Red Sea and the risk of escalation into direct interstate conflict remains high, the US intelligence believes.
Another problem is that the war is putting key Arab partners in an awkward position, as public sentiment in those countries mounts against Israel and the United States for civilian deaths and destruction in Gaza.
The American intelligence believes Iranian leaders had no prior knowledge about the attacks by Hamas against Israel. But after Israel’s counter strikes in Gaza, Iran has unleashed its proxies against Israeli and American targets. But Israel and Iran are trying to calibrate their actions against each other to avoid escalation into a direct full-scale conflict.
The report also says Netanyahu’s viability as a leader could be jeopardized, given the public distrust of his ability to govern. And it expects large scale protests demanding Netanyahu’s resignation and fresh elections.
