As voting opened in the Russian presidential election, few had doubts about the outcome. Vladimir Putin, the man who has been in power for over two decades, is set to get another six years, his fifth term.
The pitch for the so-called race has been watered well. There has been a heavy crackdown on dissidents, who are either in jail or in exile abroad. Putin’s staunchest critic Alexei Navalny, who was serving a 19-year sentence at an Arctic prison, died last month. He could not be saved despite best efforts, jail authorities announced. Navalny’s family claims he was killed at the behest of Putin and strict conditions were put for the release of his body. His widow who has vowed to keep up the fight has asked supporters to register their protest by voting for anyone else but Putin.
The other candidates, and there are three, don’t have even a remote chance. They are all members of parliament who are in the fray after careful scrutiny to maintain the façade of an election.
Boris Nadezhdin, a vocal critic of the Russia-Ukraine war, was barred from contesting although he secured 1 lakh public signatures deemed mandatory to run for the presidency as the party that backed him didn’t have any member in parliament.
The election result, in other words Putin’s victory, gives him enough leeway to project Russian public’s support for the Ukraine war.
Now in its third year, the so-called Russian special operation in Ukraine has given Putin enough bad press and hit Russia with a slew of western sanctions. Putin has repeatedly justified the war, saying it was needed for Russia’s own security, and has claimed it’s a war Russia cannot lose.
And during the poll that will last till Sunday, voting will also be held in four regions in Ukraine that Russia partly controls and also in Crimea which was annexed by Russia a decade ago.
If Putin is asserting territorial control, he has a bright spot in the economy, which is doing well, thanks to the ramped-up military industrial production.
And after winning the election, analysts expect him to escalate the offensive in Ukraine, and that could mean mobilizing more reservists.
A recent US intelligence report says Russia has suffered about 300,000 casualties in the Ukraine war and has lost thousands of tanks and armored combat vehicles. Despite that, its reliance on mines, prepared defensive positions and indirect fires helped it blunt Ukraine’s offensives last year.
The Americans believe the Russian war machinery is fully geared up to sustain a long high-intensity war if necessary. And the uncertainty over Western funding to Ukraine is helping Putin.
The report says as Moscow works to rebuild its ground forces, it could rely more on nuclear and cyber capabilities for strategic deterrence. Putin has already said Russia is prepared for a nuclear war.
