Prime Minister Modi will be in Kyiv, Ukraine on August 23rd on the first ever visit by an Indian prime minister (diplomatic relations however go back 35 years). Although Kyiv will be preceded by a visit to Warsaw, it’s clear Ukraine will stand out given the ongoing war with Russia and the geopolitical alignments it has triggered.
What does India hope to achieve or gain from this visit? Monday’s briefing by the Ministry of External Affairs threw little light on that question. Tanmay Lall, Secretary West, reiterated the standard line:
“India has maintained the clear and consistent position that only through diplomacy and dialogue this conflict can be resolved. Lasting peace can only be achieved through a negotiated settlement. Prime Minister Modi has spoken to the leaders of Russia and Ukraine.”
When asked whether Russia had been informed about the Ukraine visit, Lall said: “These partnerships stand on their own, this is not a zero-sum game. Modi had travelled to Russia and many ideas were discussed.”
Lall said India willing to provide “all support not only towards a peaceful solution but the recovery process later. Prime Minister Modi has said that this is not a time for war, solutions are not won on the battlefield, the vast majority of countries share this view.”
Commented a former senior diplomat, “What is the big takeaway, that’s not clear and what does the prime minister tell President Zelenskiy? To pull his forces back from their current offensive in Russia’s Kursk region? Let’s not forget Russia has invaded and occupied a portion of Ukraine.”
If the outcomes are uncertain and there is a risk of offending Russia, then why is Modi going?
There’s speculation his visit is to douse the anger in the Washington establishment over the Moscow visit. But India’s list of transgressions (in Washington’s eyes) is long and it’s unlikely a one-off visit of this kind will suffice. It may lay the ground for more demands on India.
At the political level, with President Biden a lame duck and the Democratic and Republican challengers slugging it out, Ukraine may not figure very high on either agenda except in rhetorical terms.
Then again if Trump wins, and he goes ahead with unplugging from Ukraine, the Modi visit would appear pointless. In the event of the Democratic challenger Kamala Harris winning, the Modi visit may not matter since her focus will be on crafting her administration’s policy.
Another former diplomat pointed to Zelenskiy’s comment when Modi visited Moscow and met Vladimir Putin last month.
“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow …”
As he pointed out, “If after this the prime minister goes and hugs Zelenskiy, how will the world perceive us?”
It may appear odd, he said, for Modi to be seeking to cool the fires in Europe when India’s backyard is unsettled. The unseating of Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka is far more consequential for Indian foreign policy than the Ukraine war. Modi’s focus should be on this backyard rather than letting Europe’s problem blur the perspective, he argued.
