“Russia has no issues with India, there is no conflict of interest,” said a veteran former diplomat who would not be named, adding “They know we are not interested in them, we pretend to be friends with them but prefer the Americans.”
Is that a harsh view of the India-Russia relationship?
Do note that National Security Adviser Ajit Doval has just wound up an intensive round of deliberations in Moscow, he called on President Putin, Putin and Modi spoke over the phone, the ground is being laid in earnest for the Russian leader’s visit later this year.
But seen in the backdrop of India’s deteriorating relationship with the US led by Donald Trump, is India trying to shore up ties with Russia after a period of benign neglect?
Clearly, the timing of Doval’s visit when the roof seemingly collapsed on Delhi-Washington, is the issue here.
Such visits are generally planned weeks if not months in advance and while there is a buzz that the Russians wanted Doval to come a little later, a few days here or there would not have really mattered to the substance of their discussions.
But Kanwal Sibal, former foreign secretary and ambassador to Russia, admits that “Ties with Russia have weakened since we developed options with the US after the nuclear deal. India’s trade with the US is big, there is the diaspora with Indians leading America’s tech majors and the US is the biggest investor in India.”
Comparatively, the Russia relationship is largely focused on India buying their oil and selling little in return. Today, that very oil is a political hot potato with the US and Europe.
“It was not a deliberate political decision to weaken relations with Russia,” Ambassador Sibal argues, “it’s just how India’s interests evolved. Russia has a place in our matrix and as we see now, it is the only stable element in our relationships.”
What do the Russians think? The diplomat mentioned earlier who did not wish to be named, was not sanguine about the Russia relationship:
“The Russians know we are in trouble with the Americans and individually, there will be people in the Moscow establishment who may not like us, the saving grace is Modi and Putin who are invested in the relationship. But ties cannot depend on two people.
“The day Russia does a deal with the Americans (which could happen as early as Friday), they will deal with us as we dealt with them. And the day Trump does a deal with China (on trade), we will be left isolated in our region,” the diplomat warned.
So is India entirely without leverage? Not so counters Ambassador Sibal. India is balancing the Russia-China axis and in the same manner in which Russia does not make an issue of the Delhi-Washington relationship, India understands the context in which Moscow and Beijing have moved closer.
“Our options with Russia are not closed,” he said, “and if compelled we can boost relations with that country, also BRICS and the SCO. We are in fact central to the concept of BRICS. The point is we can’t accept single power hegemony and we will find ways to leverage BRICS and SCO and find space for ourselves in the global governance system.”
