In some hours from now, President Joe Biden will host leaders of the Quad in what will be his last summit of this four-nation grouping (ditto for Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida who will be stepping down).
But before that, Narendra Modi is expected to brief the US President on his conversations in Kyiv last month, and earlier with Vladimir Putin. Could there be some movement on a peace process?
Nothing is clear. But it’s also obvious that any movement on the peace front may only happen after the US elects a new president, that will be in November.
Back to the Quad. The event in Wilmington, Delaware, may be seen in some quarters as lacking weight given that Biden is a lame duck. But the point is the Quad enjoys acceptability across Democrats and Republicans.
It also signals “interested parties” about the commitment of Quad members, an important point since the last Quad summit was over a year ago, in Japan. India did not insist on the summit being held here even though it was Delhi’s turn to host.
But with an eye on the November elections in the US, Modi may prefer to be cautious as to what he commits to in Delaware.
“A key agenda for the summit is the institutionalisation of the grouping,” says Prof Srikanth Kondapalli of Jawaharlal Nehru University. “After seven foreign ministerial meetings, 2+2 dialogues with all of them, and four summit level meetings, the lack of a secretariat has meant insufficient follow up on joint statements. Decisions remain in limbo.”
Case in point is the lack of cooperation between Quad coast guards to curb illegal and unreported fishing, generally by Chinese fishing fleets. These fleets also carry out surveillance and other intelligence activities, so it’s a good stick to beat Beijing with.
Although the decision to cooperate was taken at the Tokyo summit, nothing appears to have moved since then.
Limited movement also on critical technologies such as Quantum and 5G. The programme to give 100 scholarships every year to students from Quad members has been slow to take off. Implementation of the Vaccine Initiative, to provide one billion vaccines, has been poor.
That aside, India has been reluctant to push forward the Quad maritime initiative given its military implications and concerns over how China could react.
“But a via media has to be found since the maritime domain is a Quad strength,” notes Prof Kondapalli. “Perhaps Quad members can exercise in the waters of the Pacific rather than the South China Sea (SCS), where Beijing may be less sensitive. These can later be shifted when required to the SCS.”
Australia’s High Commissioner to India Philip Green struck a supportive note when he said at the annual Bharat Shakti India Defence Conclave, “We don’t think of the Quad as being a defence construct, but it can have a strategic impact. If we are able to demonstrate to the countries of the region that we are providing them with the capacity to understand their maritime domains better, that has a strategic impact.”
He also called for linking regions through trading and human engagement. So infrastructure which helps interaction is crucially important.
With Biden expected to spell out renewed “strategic convergence” among the members, one needs to wait and see exactly what he has in mind. Any concern in India about its military implications were dispelled recently by Richard Verma, former US ambassador to India and currently deputy secretary of state for management and resources.
In remarks at the Hudson Institute earlier this week, he said “I don’t think it (Quad) has to take on a military character. Indians are not supportive of that. Frankly, I don’t think we need that. I think there are other venues to deal with core military issues.”
But he also said “There’s great promise and excitement in the Quad. I think this weekend’s meeting will be quite significant. It’ll be historic. Quad will continue to build in many ways.”
