Conspiracy theorists may see a link in Air India’s decision suspending flights to Washington DC from Sept 1, to the recent downturn in the India-US relationship and the need to send a “subtle signal” to China, given Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit on Monday.
But the reality is more mundane: the suspension is primarily driven by the planned shortfall in Air India’s fleet as the airline commenced retrofitting 26 Boeing 787-8 aircraft last month, the company said in a statement. Incidentally, Air India is the only Indian airline flying to DC.
As for the downturn in India’s US relationship, it’s been evident ever since President Donald Trump’s jibes earlier this month about “dead economy” and the announcement of 25% tariff (now up by another 25%).
Trump’s claims of mediating between India and Pakistan in the wake of Operation Sindoor, a point repeated many times, was another disaster.
Even as that relationship nosedived, India and China have been exploring ways to end the impasse since the Galwan clashes in June 2020. In November last year, there was an agreement on disengagement of troops along the Line of Actual Control followed by resumption of patrolling in the Depsang Plains and Demchok.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was in Beijing in July for the SCO foreign ministers meeting. So, clearly SCO will be on the agenda during Wang Yi’s three-day visit.
“It’s a good move,” said Jayadeva Ranade, head of the Centre for China Analysis & Strategy, a think tank, “Modi’s visit to the SCO was being discussed, not being decided. But after Trump’s tariffs, it’s a signal that India has options.”
Important to note that Wang Yi will be here in his capacity as special representative on the boundary issue. So NSA Ajit Doval will be the point person at this meeting.
Lt Gen S L Narasimhan (Retd), former head of the MEA think tank on China, CCCS (Centre for Contemporary Chinese Studies), told StratNewsGlobal that “On the boundary, there is unlikely to be any major development. There is likely to be focus on direct flights, border trade resumption and exchange of journalists.”
India has already told the airlines they would need to start flights at short notice, and visas are being issued to Chinese tourists.
“There is definitely a thaw,” echoed Jayadeva Ranade, head of the Centre for China Analysis & Strategy, a Delhi-based think tank, “but let’s be clear, China is under pressure and needs markets at a time when its economy is not doing well. India is a large market.”
“Our private sector wants access to China’s market but China has not been responding favourably and there is unlikely to be a major change in that stance,” Narasimhan said adding, “They would have noted Modi’s reference to Atmanirbharta during his Independence Day address and may not want to help that effort.”
India’s need for fertiliser is being accommodated, notes Gen Narasimhan, but he does not expect they will relent on export of rare earths to India. The ban will stay but batteries for electric vehicles are being allowed.
In that sense, apart from a few areas, a lot of this visit will be about optics, which suits both countries as they seek to balance the Trump Storm.
