The cross-border military duels between Cambodia and Thailand have their roots in Franco-Siamese border treaties signed in the 1900s, that laid out the border between the two countries. So tensions and disagreements go back decades.
What is curious here is the timing of these duels: Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended last month following the leak of a phone conversation with Hun Sen, Cambodia’s prime minister.
The leak was courtesy Hun Sen, says The New York Times, where Paetongtarn is heard calling him “Uncle”, promised to “arrange” anything he wanted and seemed to disparage the powerful Thai military, which has been at daggers drawn with her family for years. The army ousted her father Thaksin Shinwatra who was prime minister, in a coup in 2006.
Adding to this cocktail is a report in The Straits Times of Singapore, which notes that Thaksin was an “economic adviser” to Hun Sen in the years following his ouster and exile.
The million dollar question is why would Hun Sen want to leak the details of his phone call with Paetongtarn? Did he want her gone? Has he fallen out with the family?
Do recall that Thaksin is among the richest of Thai politicians with his wealth estimated at over $2 billion.
The Straits Times says the dalliance of the Shinawatra family with Hun Sen is only going to boost the legitimacy of the military, which has a long history of running Thailand. In fact, Thai politics is all about the struggle between pro-democracy parties and a pro-military establishment made up of wealthy elites and a royalist bureaucracy.
Thailand has seen dozens of coups and about 20 constitutions since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932.
“If snap elections were to take place later this year or next year, conservative parties will hope to ride a wave of nationalist sentiment,” The Straits Times said. In other words, the Pheu Thai party of the Shinawatra family could be defeated with unforseen consequences for them.
The border clashes may die down as they have in the past, the real challenge lies ahead: will a victorious military-backed right wing government seek to snuff out the challenge posed by the Shinawatra family? Will it be amenable for a dialogue with the Cambodians to end these recurrent face-offs? As they say only time will tell.
