A decade after his last visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will touch down in Port Louis, capital of the island republic of Mauritius on Tuesday, ahead of national day celebrations which he will grace as chief guest.
Modi’s visit is expected to see the two sides create a framework for cooperation in maritime zone management and ocean observation and research. They will share intelligence and sign an MoU on combating financial crimes including technical help to fight money laundering. There will be exchange of information on white shipping.
Mauritian geopolitical strategist Kwang Poon, told StratNewsGlobal on the phone from Port Louis, that Modi’s visit coincides with the finalisation of the agreement with the UK on the Chagos archipelago including the US military base on the island of Diego Garcia.
The agreement had been negotiated by the previous government of Pravind Jugnauth with India’s help, but details were kept secret. The new government of Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam, which came to power last November, sought some changes that included a veto over any extension of the 99-year lease on Diego Garcia.
Ramgoolam had told parliament that his government had also renegotiated an “inflation proof” draft featuring an undisclosed “front loaded” payment.
Exactly what that means and how much it differs from the previous agreement will become known only after Ramgoolam briefs Modi on the finer points. This could happen on Tuesday itself. The larger issue of course, is the rivalries taking shape in the Indian Ocean involving the big powers, which India is acutely aware of.
“When one talks of the big powers one is not talking of the UK here,” said an Indian Ocean scholar, “although the negotiations over the Chagos Archipelago involve the UK as the administering power and Mauritius. It is the US whose actions need to be carefully watched.”
The new US embassy complex in Port Louis is being built at a reported cost of $300 million and hints at Washington’s expansive plans for the region. Scholars suspect the US sees itself as stepping in to exercising the kind of influence the UK had at one point.
Does that mean India’s position as the principal partner of Mauritius could be challenged before long? Kwang Poon chose his words carefully:
“Mauritius has the potential to play a central role in balancing the incumbent and emerging powers in the Indian Ocean thanks to its geo-strategic assets, notably the Chagos and Agalega,” he said.
Meaning Mauritius with its own “multi-polar” outlook, may seek to broaden its network of friends, allies and partners, and the US could lend a willing hand. India may see a dilution of its current position and therefore the need to look beyond Mauritius.
The Indian Ocean is dotted with little island states from Madagascar to Comoros and Seychelles each with vast territorial seas, exclusive economic zones and little in the way of armed force to secure them from rapacious foreign interests.
India, which last year cut the ribbon on a new jetty and airstrip on Agalega, has plans to build a port near the jetty, set up an intelligence station, establish communication facilities and a transponder system to track movement of naval and commercial traffic. This could be of help to small island states.
But let’s not forget US-held Diego Garcia, which has been active since the 1970s. Situated in the middle of the Indian Ocean, a little over 2,200 km from India’s southern shores, 3,900 km from east Africa 4,600+ km from Indonesia, the island is an ideal observation post to monitor every kind of naval and commercial traffic.
“It is an ideal location to project power from,” said a former diplomat who follows the Indian Ocean closely. “US Tanker aircraft from Diego Garcia refuelled B-2 bombers flying to hit targets in Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11. Diego Garcia was also from where aircraft carried out strikes on Iraq.”
Another point: although India and the US are forging closer ties across every sphere of activity, one does come across views in the US where India is seen on the distant horizon as the next China, and therefore the need to not go the whole hog in building up its capabilities.
Given that China cannot be a partner for India in the Indian Ocean, where its profile has been steadily rising, the alternative could be France, an Indian Ocean power in its own right. Ties between Delhi and Paris are robust, characterised by political confidence and deepening economic and military engagement.
But these are early days yet. As Modi heads into discussions in Port Louis, many eyes in the region will be closely monitoring developments to see what the latest round of the India-Mauritius jugalbandi produces.
