Buried in paragraph 34 of the India New Zealand joint statement, issued at the end of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s talks with Narendra Modi on Monday, is a reference to India’s hopes of joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
“Both leaders acknowledged the importance of upholding the global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime and acknowledged the value of India joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in context of predictability for India’s clean energy goals and its non-proliferation credentials.”
The NSG was set up in 1974 as the US response to India’s “peaceful nuclear test” that year. Comprising 48 countries, the aim was to ensure that nuclear trade for peaceful purposes does not contribute to the proliferation of atomic weapons.
Does the paragraph in the joint statement mean that India has moved closer to being admitted to the NSG? No. Admission to the NSG requires being a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which India refuses to sign, saying it is discriminatory.
Yet New Zealand, an NSG member which has in the past fiercely opposed India’s entry, has clearly softened its stand.
“This is the language crafted by both sides, it is positive and a step forward,” sources in the Ministry of External Affairs told StratNewsGlobal.
But as a senior diplomat pointed out, New Zealand’s opposition to India in the past reflected its position as a US ally.
“It still remains a US ally, but India has moved closer to the US in response to the challenge from China, and the 2008 civil nuclear deal has opened a lot of strategic doors for New Delhi,” he said.
These include admission in 2016 to the Missile Technology Control Regime that gives access to crucial missile technologies; in 2017 India joined the Wassenaar Arrangement, which seeks to promote transparency in the transfer of arms and dual use goods and technologies; also in 2018 to the Australia Group, a multilateral export control regime that seeks to check the spread of chemical and biological weapons.
Today, the real opposition to India joining the NSG is not New Zealand or Ireland, Austria or even Switzerland that collectively make up barely 5% of the NSG. The elephant in the room keeping India out is China, which does not recognise this country as a nuclear weapons state and sees Delhi’s proximity to the US as a challenge and a threat to its position.
“So New Zealand softening its position does not improve India’s NSG prospects since admission there is by consensus,” the diplomat pointed out, “but it adds to the positive momentum in favour of India, which is good.”
The irony is New Zealand (or for that matter Austria, Ireland and Switzerland) are not and never have been players in the nuclear arena. They have no nuclear plants generating electricity, nor do they supply uranium. In other words, they have no stake in the nuclear order yet have been among the loudest voices against India.
But if today India allowed the import of New Zealand’s dairy products, it would put that country firmly on Delhi’s side. India knows this, it explains the agreement on relaunching FTA negotiations (which will be prolonged because Dairy is a politically sensitive issue in India, more so when Amit Shah holds the cooperatives portfolio and can be expected to zealously guard Amul’s turf).
Ireland has no dairy products to export but has a stake in e-Commerce since the cream of US tech firms are based in that country because of zero tax. In that sense, Ireland has a stake in the tech trade with India and more so in education and would like more Indian students to study there.
India may have even blunted Switzerland’s opposition when it signed the Trade & Economic Partnership agreement last year.
The NSG reference in the India New Zealand joint statement is therefore indicative of India’s efforts at thinning opposition ranks. But it must be understood that China is the roadblock here and there’s nothing to suggest the mandarins in Beijing are softening towards India.
