China is likely to launch military drills in the coming days near Taiwan, using President
Lai Ching-te’s upcoming trip to the Pacific and scheduled U.S. transit as a pretext, according to assessments by Taiwan and regional security officials.
Lai will start a visit to Taipei’s three diplomatic allies in the Pacific on Saturday, and sources told Reuters he was planning stops in Hawaii and the U.S. territory of Guam in a
sensitive trip coming shortly after the U.S. election.
China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and the most important issue in its relations with Washington, has a strong dislike of Lai whom Beijing calls a “separatist”.
Lai’s office has yet to confirm details of what are officially stop-overs in the United States, but is expected to do so shortly before he departs, sources familiar with the trip have previously said.
Beijing could conduct military manoeuvres around or shortly after Lai’s trip which ends on Dec. 6, said four officials in the region briefed on the matter, who declined to be identified
due to the sensitivity of the matter.
China’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment, though the government has urged the United States not to permit Lai to transit.
Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday that Lai’s transit stops were “essentially provocative acts that violate the one-China principle”.
Taiwan’s defence ministry and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.
China has already staged two rounds of major exercises around Taiwan this year to pressure Taipei, one in May and one in October, dubbed “Joint Sword – 2024A” and B, respectively.
China could “repackage” ongoing regular military activities in the South China Sea or the East China Sea, moving them closer to Taiwan and rebranding them “Joint Sword – 2024C,” according to a Taiwan security official.
Beijing could expand the size of its regular “joint combat readiness patrol” that typically involves naval and air force drills near Taiwan during Lai’s visit and launch a “targeted”
exercise towards the end of the trip, the source said.
Between 20 and 30 Chinese naval vessels are involved in the ongoing military manoeuvres this week in the South China Sea, the source added.
With Reuters inputs
