Is too much being made of the China visit of Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli from Dec 2-6? This is important for every time Nepal gets a new prime minister, the first trip he makes is to Delhi.
But for some reason, Oli has not merited an invitation even though his Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba, was in Delhi in August and invited Prime Minister Modi to Kathmandu.
Was it a protocol lapse that Modi did not extend an invitation to Oli at that meeting? Or was it deliberate? Was Delhi conveying some subtle displeasure? It’s hard to say and the MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) has maintained silence.
Veteran Nepali journalist Yubaraj Ghimire told Stratnewsglobal over the phone from Kathmandu, that in his understanding, Modi and Oli had met for about half an hour at the UN General Assembly in New York.
“It was not a one-on-one meeting,” Ghimire says, “and Modi had told Oli he planned to come to Kathmandu but there was nothing about inviting him to Delhi.”
He says India is committed to the Nepali Congress (NC), which is in coalition with Oli’s CPN (UML). By meeting Arzu Rana Deuba, wife of NC leader and former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, India was underscoring its support for that party.
Ghimire believes India would prefer that the NC and Maoist leader Prachanda come together rather than the current arrangement.
Former Indian diplomats who have served in Nepal, were wary about commenting on the possible reasons for not inviting Oli. But one warned that if Oli chose to interpret this as a snub, “there would be no shortage of people and groups in Kathmandu who could turn the heat on the bilateral relationship.”
India’s familiarity born of culture and access, has traditionally made it an easy target. This was the case even during the days of the monarchy and those habits did not die with it. But there is a view in Kathmandu which is at variance with this argument.
Nepal’s former ambassador to Denmark, Vijay Kant Karna, wondered why every newly anointed Nepali prime minister has to travel overseas, whether to Delhi, Beijing or elsewhere and even more so in the present case.
“Leaving aside Arzu Rana Deuba’s visit in August, India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishankar was in Kathmandu earlier this year in January and there were important outcomes including on the export of 10,000MW of electricity to India, cross-border power linkages and so on. When so much has already been decided upon, what is an Oli visit expected to deliver,” he asked.
There is the border dispute over Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura which peaked in 2019, when Oli was prime minister, and has simmered since then. No resolution is in sight.
With regard to China, Karna also questioned the rationale for that visit.
“China has not been forthcoming on budgetary support for Nepal, amounting to around $200 million,” he said, “and this despite regular reminders. Nor is there any movement on the BRI projects first announced in 2017 and reiterated during every VIP visit since then.”
The latter is because the NC insists that the projects be funded through grants and concessional loans while China is only offering commercial loans. Result the BRI Implementation Plan has not moved forward.
Is there a hidden Indian hand here, one can only speculate. A corner stone of India’s policy in Nepal is not to have two communist or left-wing parties together in Kathmandu. That would add infinitely to China’s leverage.
The current NC-CPN(UML) arrangement is better than the above option, but Oli may not enjoy high levels of trust in Delhi given how he brought the Kalapani border issue to the fore in the bilateral relationship.
His proximity to China is another irritant although he’s been low profile on that relationship since taking over as prime minister. But with Beijing on his radar in December, that maybe about to change.
