India’s connectivity ambitions towards Central Asia have suffered another setback after US strikes on Iran and the uncertainty surrounding sanctions complicated the future of the Chabahar port project, a gateway New Delhi has long viewed as its strategic route into Eurasia.
Speaking to The Gist Professor Rajan Kumar of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies said Chabahar had always served two purposes for India: providing access to Afghanistan and creating a transport corridor into Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. With both objectives now under pressure, India’s options have narrowed considerably.
Kumar said the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), conceived to reduce freight time between India and Russia from around 45 days to nearly 25, has also stalled. Although dry runs have already been completed and key rail links were close to completion, sanctions on Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war and the latest conflict involving Iran have delayed progress. He argued that these external developments, rather than any lack of Indian commitment, have prevented the corridor from becoming fully operational.
Without Chabahar or a functioning INSTC, India is left with far longer maritime routes through the Suez Canal, Turkey and Russia to reach Central Asia, increasing both transit time and costs. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor has also lost momentum because of continuing regional instability.
Beyond connectivity, Kumar argued that India’s economic footprint in Central Asia remains modest. India’s trade with the five Central Asian republics is about $2 billion, while China’s trade has grown to roughly $95 billion, backed by investments worth tens of billions of dollars. Political engagement has expanded through the India-Central Asia Dialogue, SCO membership and regular high-level exchanges, but these have yet to translate into comparable commercial influence.
He said New Delhi should deepen investments in energy, mining and infrastructure, encourage greater private sector participation, expand capacity-building programmes and strengthen cultural and educational exchanges that once gave India considerable goodwill across the region. Central Asia, he argued, remains vital not only for energy security but also for managing developments in Afghanistan and balancing Pakistan’s regional influence. Losing momentum there, he warned, would carry long-term strategic costs for India.
