The fate of Iran ’s nuclear program carries the greatest potential to unravel the peace talks with the U.S. Trump has touted Iran’s commitment never to develop a nuclear weapon, but negotiations could falter over what to do with Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium. Trump wants it shipped out or destroyed, while Iran prefers dilution.
Another sticking point is Iran’s future uranium enrichment. The U.S. has demanded zero enrichment in peace talks, while Iran refuses to give up its right to enrich. Compromise on a previously discussed 5 to 20-year moratorium remains elusive. Additionally, it is questionable whether Iran will accept the level of international inspection conducted under the 2015 nuclear deal.
Could Strait Of Hormuz Complicate Matters?
Questions remain about the strait, which Iran blocked, triggering a global energy supply shock. Under the MOU, the waterway will reopen on Friday, but shippers remain cautious.
The U.S., in the peace talks, says it will be toll-free, while Iran insists it will retain a management role.
What About Sanctions And Frozen Assets?
Iran wants Trump to quickly lift sanctions and unlock billions in frozen funds, while the U.S. says easing will be gradual and tied to compliance. Under the MOU, Iran receives immediate oil sale waivers, drawing criticism from hawks.
Trump may be reluctant to hand over money soon, as the MOU is already being compared to the Obama deal he long berated.
Could Israel Be A Spoiler?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted Israel is not bound by any U.S.-Iran agreement in its fight against Hezbollah. Though hostilities have abated since Trump rebuked Netanyahu, further escalation could threaten the talks. Iran says the deal requires a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Will Negotiating Styles Clash?
The U.S. team, Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, and their Iranian counterparts may struggle to reconcile disparate negotiating styles. Trump demands quick peace results, whereas Iran prefers drawn-out bargaining with the U.S.
Trump told reporters this stage would be “easier,” as both sides want to wrap up the conflict due to high gasoline prices and economic strain. However, the U.S. team is expected to be short on technical expertise against veteran Iranian negotiators.
Could Distrust Be A Factor?
Iran is deeply suspicious of Trump, who twice attacked in the middle of negotiations. Iranian willingness to compromise hinges on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, whose family was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike. The U.S. will also remain distrustful of being strung along.
Other Ways Talks Could Falter
Talks could also fail if Trump bows to pressure from hawks to resist concessions, or if Iranian hardliners force intransigence. Conflicting interpretations of the MOU or harsh threats from Trump could also prompt Iran to break off negotiations.
(with input from Reuters)
