The United Arab Emirates’s decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+ has exposed long-simmering tensions with Saudi Arabia, signalling a strategic break from Riyadh-led oil governance amid a regional power recalibration shaped by the Iran war.
Analysts say the move, announced Tuesday, goes beyond disagreements over production quotas, widely viewed by Gulf sources as unfavourable to Abu Dhabi—and reflects deeper geopolitical and strategic differences.
It is also part of a deeper rupture in ties in which Abu Dhabi is prioritising autonomy over deference to Riyadh, they said, and using oil as a tool to express its autonomy and show it will not be dictated to.
The rupture, they said, goes beyond policy into the personal and strategic core of the relationship between UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Strategic Break
Gulf sources with knowledge of the UAE move called it the culmination of a strategic break with Saudi-led oil governance driven by years of divergence over conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, energy quotas and competing visions of the Gulf order.
The UAE will be able to assert direct control over how it deploys spare oil capacity, stripping away assumptions that Gulf energy policy remains anchored in Riyadh or bound to Saudi primacy, the sources said.
UAE analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdulla said the move by a “new, more assertive UAE” had been shaped partly by the regional war and partly by a reassessment of national interests.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has raised instability and economic pressure, strengthening Abu Dhabi’s case to break from output quotas. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi said rigid quota systems no longer reflect regional realities, signalling the UAE’s intent to act independently.
Officials, however, said the exit follows a strategic review of production policy and capacity, denying broader withdrawal plans from other blocs.
Gulf Countries’ Stance ‘Weakest In History’
Security concerns have loomed large for the United Arab Emirates since the war began. Adviser Anwar Gargash criticised Gulf states’ reliance on air defences against Iran as “the weakest in history.”
Former U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller said Abu Dhabi now sees its security anchored in ties with United States and Israel, which have provided key defence support.
This shift reflects a broader divergence with Saudi Arabia—from once-aligned policies after the Arab uprisings to competing strategies in Yemen, Sudan, and economic arenas shaped by Vision 2030. The split is also visible in Israel ties, with the UAE normalising early under the Abraham Accords while Riyadh remains cautious.
(With inputs from Reuters)
