As energy stress spreads across Southeast Asia, governments are urging China to honor its pledges on energy security by lifting bans on fertiliser and fuel exports.
So far, however, China has offered only vague responses and has not publicly acknowledged the reported export bans, prioritizing protection of its own economy amid the war in Iran.
Analysts don’t expect that to change, pointing to the tension between China’s stated ambition to be a bigger player in regional affairs and the realpolitik of its commitment to keep its own economy outpacing global growth.
China is the world’s second largest fertiliser exporter and also a large supplier of fuel. For many countries in Asia including Bangladesh, the Philippines and even Australia, Chinese imports are a major source of supply, now cut off by its export bans.
Talks with China
Dhaka earlier this month asked China to honour existing fuel contracts, while Thai diplomats will engage Chinese counterparts to keep fertiliser shipments from China flowing if needed, officials in Bangkok said.
In Malaysia, officials said last week the Chinese export ban would worsen fertiliser rationing, including in its oil palm industry, the world’s second-largest, and add a further blow on top of the war in Iran.
On March 17, the Philippines minister of agriculture visited China’s embassy in Manila and said China had agreed to continue fertiliser shipments. Beijing’s one-sentence readout said only that they had discussed agriculture.
The same day Australia, which imported a third of its jet fuel from China last year, said it was discussing jet fuel exports with Beijing.
‘A Tried And Tested Playbook’
China’s flagship Belt and Road infrastructure initiative has seen world leaders regularly congregate in Beijing to discuss ‘win-win’ cooperation but with the region now short on fuel and fertiliser, Southeast Asian capitals are instead looking for replacements from the likes of Russia.
Beijing will likely stick to its tried-and-tested playbook: imposing sharp, broad curbs on energy and energy-related exports before selectively resuming trade once officials are confident domestic demand can be met, analysts noted.
With no major aid donor such as Japan, or regional rival, stepping in to plug shortages, China faces little pressure to do so itself, analysts said.
(With inputs from Reuters)
