The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader suggests a shift in that country’s strategic doctrine, says Dr Seyed Emamiam, co-founder of the Governance and Policy thinktank in Tehran.
In a conversation on The Gist, Dr Emamiam underscored that “If Iran is not secure, no one in the region will be secure … The Strait of Hormuz, a geopolitical asset that has not been leveraged before, is expected to be used to defend Iranian dignity and national sovereignty by imposing control and regulation over the strait, not by blocking it. This marks the beginning of a new security landscape in West Asia and the Persian Gulf.”
Does that mean countries like India will need to seek Iranian permission to get oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Emamiam hinted that it may not be easy going for India.
“India’s new policies particularly supporting Israel have been controversial and shocking to Iranian society which previously viewed India as a civilizational and morally rich counterpart.”
He alleged that India had shared with the US and Israel, through military channels, data about an unarmed Iranian naval vessel that was torpedoed by an American submarine. India has denied it but the Iranians don’t seem convinced.
Emamian warned that “Israel’s military targets include demilitarizing and changing the map of the region, based on an expansionist ideology known as ‘Greater Israel’.
“Iran’s strategic target for the current war is to revive deterrence, meaning they will continue the war until a level of deterrence is materialized to prevent future wars and impose the cost of the conflict on Israel and the US.”
In other words, uncertainty over how long this war could continue. It suggests that even if the US decides to end the war tomorrow and claim victory, Iran will not sit back but press forward until its strategic goals are achieved.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Dr Seyed Emamiam of the Governance and Policy thinktank in Tehran.
