In Dhaka, one prominent thread of discussion in the run up to the February 12 elections is about the disproportionate influence wielded by western diplomats and International NGOs on the Interim Administration led by Chief Adviser Mohd. Yunus.
“Bangladesh today is run by a cabal of American and European diplomats in collusion with their agents in the current administration, comprising unelected advisers,” one analyst remarked seething with barely disguised anger. This thought was echoed across observers from different professions.
“The American Ambassador is the new Viceroy in town,” added another, referring to US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Brent T. Christensen’s highly publicised meetings with Interim Government advisers, military leadership and prominent political leaders including BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman and the Ameer of Jamaat-e-Islami Dr Shafiqur Rahman.
The concern is not about these meetings but about the unspoken agenda the Americans are working on. “They want a situation where a weak dispensation (read coalition or National Unity government) is in the saddle to further their interests in the region. A Washington Post report last week cited a US diplomat telling local journalists in Sylhet it wants Jamaat strengthened. “We want them to be our friends,” an unnamed American diplomat is heard telling local media, signalling an acceptance of Jamaat as a political force to reckon with.
If the Americans are aggressive, the British and other European envoys are more subtle but working towards the same goal, more experienced observers in Bangladesh tell me. “Yunus is their man and he is collaborating actively with the West to secure his post-election position (possibly as president) and facilitating mainstreaming of the Jamaat,” one of them pointed out.
The best-case scenario for Yunus is a hung Parliament, his critics argue. That way, he remains relevant and can share the spoils of power by advocating a national unity government. The West, detractors of the current regime argue, is actively backing this game plan. Such an arrangement favours Jamaat, which wields considerable influence as it is in the current administration, they add.
Big business houses are worried too. Business leaders say like nature abhors vacuum, industry abhors turbulence and therefore would like stability in Bangladesh post-elections. Most of them are hoping for a more ‘acceptable,’ BNP led dispensation to govern Bangladesh but above everything else, they want certainty, a clear roadmap for the medium term. The Interim Government’s track record has nothing to be proud about and any undue influence of the West over Bangladesh policymakers after the elections is unacceptable to the business community, important business executives told me.
Overt and covert meddling by the West will also be destabilising for the region and despite unhappiness with past Indian policies vis-à-vis Bangladesh, avoiding a western block led policy that may seek to create perpetual turmoil in Bangladesh is a better option, saner elements in Bangladesh feel.
Pakistan and Turkey, by contrast, operate under the radar. Pakistan which was kept at bay by the Hasina government, has made a comeback in the security and intelligence establishment and is moving swiftly to secure its interests. Turkey is offering its indigenously built military platforms while China continues to have a significant presence across industry, academia, civil society and of course the military.
For once, India and its policies in Bangladesh is not a hot topic of discussion. Seen as an unequivocal supporter of deposed Prime Minister and Awami League leader Shiekh Hasina for more than a decade, political discourse in Bangladesh is currently dominated by its domestic concerns. The only time India comes up is in private discussions when almost everyone blames Delhi for ‘putting all its eggs in one basket,’ meaning turning a blind eye to the sins of commission and omission committed by Hasina. “Despite clear evidence of authoritarian behaviour and excesses committed by her regime, Hasina was never out of favour in Delhi. What was more frustrating to watch was the complete exclusion of her opponents and even civil society in India’s engagement in Dhaka during the previous government,” remarked an analyst. That the ousted Prime Minister and her supporters have found a haven in India adds to the barely concealed frustration bordering on anger.
Long-time observers of India-Bangladesh relations however acknowledge India’s patient approach with Dhaka since August 2024 has had a calming effect. “Officially, India’s stand that it will work with any government that comes to power after a free and fair election is seen as a positive by all political parties,” one of them said. That sentiment was perhaps reflected well in the large gathering of people drawn from all political parties and different segments of the society at a reception hosted by the Indian High Commission in Dhaka last week on the eve of India’s 77th Republic Day.
“However, over-the-top, wild conspiracy theories peddled by some YouTubers and Social media handles in India besides a select few TV channels is not helpful,” an analyst remarked. He may be right but the reverse, as I pointed out, is also true.
The trick, as old friends and acquaintances in Dhaka agreed, is to ignore the noise and look ahead to a new beginning post-February 12.
((Part I: BNP Ahead But Jamaat Resurgent))
