China’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the birthrate plunged to a record low, official data showed on Monday, with experts warning of further decline.
The population dropped by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster fall than in 2024. Total births fell 17% to 7.92 million, while deaths rose to 11.31 million, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
China’s birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people, while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest since 1968.
China’s population has been shrinking since 2022 and is ageing rapidly, complicating Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic consumption and rein in debt.
People aged over 60 now account for around 23% of the population, and by 2035 the number is set to reach 400 million. China has already raised retirement ages, with men expected to work until 63 and women until 58.
Long Shadow Of One-Child Policy
Marriages plunged by a fifth in 2024, the biggest drop on record, with 6.1 million couples registering.
Marriages are a leading indicator for births, though a May 2025 rule allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country may provide a temporary boost. Marriages rose 22.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.
Authorities are also trying to promote “positive views on marriage and childbearing” as they try to undo the influence of the one-child policy that was in force from 1980 to 2015 helping to tackle poverty, but reshaping Chinese families and society.
Population Key Issue In Economic Strategy
Population planning is now central to economic strategy, with Beijing facing potential costs of around 180 billion yuan to boost births. Measures include a national child subsidy and a pledge to fully cover pregnancy-related medical costs in 2026.
China’s fertility rate remains among the world’s lowest at around one birth per woman, far below the replacement rate.
(With input from Reuters)
