The mass demonstrations in Iran are now two weeks old, and although the internet is down, reports say 180 cities in 13 provinces are in revolt with more than 2000 people detained and at least 65 dead.
“The government has a monopoly on violence,” Gaddam Dharmendra, India’s former ambassador to Iran told StratNews Global on The Gist. “They can they can inflict a lot, bring harsh measures to control what seems to be quite serious escalation and a serious challenge for the regime. So we’ll have to wait and see.”
In his view, although the security apparatus has held together there is a divide on how exactly to approach these protests. The public pain as a result of sanctions is too obvious to be denied and President Pezeshkian, who comes from the minority Kurdish-Azeri areas to the northwest, is a known moderate.
“His initial statements were quite conciliatory, that he does understand the people’s economic difficulties, asking for patience and also calling for engagement and dialogue. On the other hand, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the ultimate decision making authority, has been much more harsh.
“He’s called for, making a distinction between rioters and protesters. Protesters can be engaged, but rioters will face, severe, very harsh, repression.”
The demonstrations have come on the back of severe setbacks for the clerical regime, which has lost influence in Syria and Lebanon. The axis of resistance has collapsed and now a dramatic escalation by President Trump that if the regime cracks down, he will target them.
There should be no doubt, Ambassador Dharmendra said, that if it comes down to regime survival, they circle the wagons and everybody is invested in upholding the system. The fact that the protests have not seen the emergence of any leader or leadership, helps the regime but the protests are also organic and the gap between such mass uprisings is less.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Gaddam Dharmendra, India’s former ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Thirty eight years in journalism, widely travelled, history buff with a preference for Old Monk Rum. Current interest/focus spans China, Technology and Trade. Recent reads: Steven Colls Directorate S and Alexander Frater's Chasing the Monsoon. Netflix/Prime video junkie. Loves animal videos on Facebook. Reluctant tweeter.
