The silence from Beijing a week after the inauguration of Japan’s first woman prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, is seen as unprecedented. But not so when you consider some of her recent remarks.
“She has made it clear that China, Russia, and North Korea are strategic threats, and that Tokyo’s defence budget will expand sharply to meet these challenges,” says Dr. Gitanjali Sinha Roy, who teaches and researches on Japan at the Jindal School of International Affairs.
There’s more. Takaichi’s views on Taiwan are unlikely to have gone down well in Beijing.
“Her view of Taiwan as a separate and strategic partner, is a position that directly contradicts Beijing’s ‘One China’ principle,” Gitanjali notes. “By strengthening Japan–Taiwan ties, she is signalling a decisive and unapologetic departure from Japan’s traditionally cautious diplomacy.”
She called on Taiwan’s President William Lai in April and then had a meeting with the foreign minister in July.
An article in China’s Guancha.cn by Taiwan-born scholar Dr Lin Quanzhong, warns that Takaichi may challenge China’s three “red lines”: Taiwan, wartime history, and territorial disputes. He likens her ideology to that of the late prime minister Shinzo Abe, though she lacks his pragmatism and political heft. He believes Takaichi’s fragile coalition will limit her room for maneuvre, so she may prefer to focus on the US relationship and economic revival, at least for now. The key issue would be if she moves to revise Article 9 of Japan’s pacifist constitution.
“If Japan moves towards re-militarisation, it would fundamentally alter the security architecture of Northeast Asia. Beijing, already anxious about Tokyo’s expanding military role, will see this as a direct challenge, reawakening what many describe as China’s ‘imperial fear’ of Japan’s resurgence,” Gitanjali says.
“There is even quiet discussion, both within Japan and abroad, about whether Tokyo should consider limited nuclear capability, an idea once hinted at by Donald Trump. If such debates gather momentum, Japan could re-emerge not just as a regional counterweight, but as a decisive military power, one that Beijing can no longer ignore.”
A nuclear Japan would be the ultimate nightmare for China, it could enormously complicate Beijing’s plans for Taiwan apart from introducing the nuclear element in its backyard.
China scholar at the Takshashila Institution Manoj Kewalramani summed it up: “One should expect the relationship to remain challenging despite economic ties remaining resilient. Beijing will also bewary of Tokyo partnering with the US on issues of economic secirity which adversely impact Chinese interests.“
Research Associate at StratNewsGlobal, A keen observer of #China and Foreign Affairs. Writer, Weibo Trends, Analyst.
Twitter: @resham_sng
