The story seemed singularly unremarkable going by the headline: Mizoram: Two arrested, cache of explosives seized at Indo-Myanmar border village.
But there was nothing unremarkable as one read further. It was the seizure by the Assam Rifles two days back, of 5,800 gelignite rods used for blasting, 10,500 metres of cordtex or fuses and 6000 detonators. Adequate it would seem to start a small war.
The seizure was made at Vaphai, a small village in Mizoram near the border with civil war torn Myanmar. Police investigations are on, so at this point it remains unclear what it was intended for and by whom. But it came from Myanmar, that much seems certain.
It’s a pointer to the challenges India faces as the civil war deepens in that country, society fractures and armed groups proliferate. It could get even worse as the military junta plans to hold elections in the areas it controls.
“Post poll India will see a volatile country as resistance will harden against a government that has not changed,” warned scholars and diplomats. “Ethnic organisations have said they will deal with the elections appropriately, meaning they will not be held in areas under their control.”
India has called for “credible and inclusive elections”, although it’s quite clear the elections will be neither credible nor inclusive given the Myanmar army’s record. But Delhi probably hopes the elections may provide some daylight on the way forward.
India is also bracing for what will happen: as infiltration goes up India will need to strengthen border security. India will also need to expand and deepen its humanitarian outreach as the conflict intensifies.
The junta is nowhere close to winning the war, it has lost ground in many parts of the country as ethnic armed organisations press forward and consolidate their hold over territory the army has been driven out from.
Yet despite suffering battlefield reverses and total loss of credibility, the junta hangs on and is able to move forward on elections. It is expected to make full use of the two to three million refugees sheltering in army-controlled areas. Expect them to vote for the army backed candidates, they don’t have any choice.
The process has been structured to ensure the army-backed USDP wins and a new leadership steps in, enabling junta chief Gen Min Aung Hlaing to exit after having brought ruin to his country.
The ethnic organisations apart from refusing to take part in the elections or allowing any voting in areas they control, lack unity of purpose. Numbering around 200, they are fragmented.
The NUG or National Unity Government comprising MPs and other elected members who were ousted in the wake of the 2021 military coup, is operating from jungle hideouts in Myanmar. The NUG had a huge advantage in the wake of the coup, given international support, and offices in many influential world capitals
But it has come under increasing criticism for corruption, for being divided internally and faulted for not being able to bring together the ethnic armed groups on a common platform. The Arakan Army, for instance, acknowledged as the most sophisticated and effective in its operations in Rakhine State, has worked largely to its own plan.
There’s also the National League for Democracy (NLD) which was running the country before the military threw them out. It has refused to register for the elections under the new laws laid down by the junta.
Aung San Suu Kyi, who was state councillor and foreign minister before the coup, is a formidable foe for the junta despite age and failing health, which is why she remains in their custody.
The outlook is bleak. The US has shown no interest in countering the junta, leaving the field open for China to exert its influence over ethnic groups like the Kachins and of course the junta. Russia is a major arms supplier to the generals. The elections are unlikely to bring stability and an end to the fighting.
Thirty eight years in journalism, widely travelled, history buff with a preference for Old Monk Rum. Current interest/focus spans China, Technology and Trade. Recent reads: Steven Colls Directorate S and Alexander Frater's Chasing the Monsoon. Netflix/Prime video junkie. Loves animal videos on Facebook. Reluctant tweeter.
