“Bangladesh has changed very, very fundamentally after the exit of Sheikh Hasina on August 5th last. And you have Muhammad Yunus coming in as the de facto ruler after the regime change and he’s more aligned to the Jamaat-e-Islami, which historically has been close to Pakistan,” says former journalist Atul Aneja, currently a scholar writing and analysing strategic developments.
In a conversation on The Gist, Aneja said he had no doubts that the regime change in Bangladesh involved the US Deep State, which saw Hasina as inconvenient after she refused to allow them to use San Martin island south of Chittagong port.
Since her ouster, Bangladesh has seen no less than three military exercises with the US including one in September in Chittagong in the south and another in Sylhet in the east. There are media reports about the possibility of Bangladesh signing the Status of Forces Agreement, which would allow the movement of US military personnel in and out of Bangladesh.
But what’s the game plan here? The coming of the Americans, Aneja warns, has implications for India’s northeastern states since Chittagong borders them. Also for Myanmar’s restive Rakhine state. It has implications for China since it potentially opens a corridor for infiltration through Myanmar to China’s Yunnan province.
“This region,” Aneja notes, “is rife with drugs, arms and trafficking of every kind, there are insurgencies and criminal gangs, making for a deadly cocktail.”
The US game plan is to counter China. It is the reason why Washington is rebuilding its ties with Pakistan. There are reports that Pakistan has offered Pasni to the US for developing into a naval port facility. Pasni is close to Gwadar, which was funded and developed by the Chinese and they are unlikely to see this development positively.
Pakistan’s geography also provides access to Afghanistan, where the Chinese and the Russians appear well entrenched. Pakistan will be useful in Bangladesh, where the Jamaat-e-Islami remains a solid pro-Pakistan element.
It is speculated that if the Jamaat wins the election in Bangladesh next year, India will be up against a ruling establishment that sees it in adversarial terms. Here the role of the Bangladesh army could be crucial.
A neutral force now, if the top leadership changes next year to reflect the political dispensation, the fat could be in the fire for India.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Atul Aneja, former journalist and currently a writer and commentator on strategic issues.
Thirty eight years in journalism, widely travelled, history buff with a preference for Old Monk Rum. Current interest/focus spans China, Technology and Trade. Recent reads: Steven Colls Directorate S and Alexander Frater's Chasing the Monsoon. Netflix/Prime video junkie. Loves animal videos on Facebook. Reluctant tweeter.
