“The enduring belief they have is the four-day war has created a new normal, in that Pakistan responded resolutely to India’s actions through their strategy of calibrated deterrence … bottom line here is not going for all out war but ensure I have enough credible capacities to deal with any escalation,” says Brig Arun Sahgal (Retd), of the Forum for Strategic Initiatives.
He was speaking on The Gist programme, analysing Pakistan’s moves during Operation Sindoor, its narratives, what the Pak army wants and what does India do.
Sahgal argues that the Pakistani army’s aim was to ensure that its narrative of a great victory against India, was accepted by the public at large, and that Pakistan was not found wanting in responding to India.
“They also believe they’ve been able to sell this whole idea that India is overusing terrorism,” he says, “so give us the evidence that Pahalgam was done by us … we have sought a joint investigation … we have asked for your witnesses to come but they are not coming to Pakistan.”
Pakistan is now pushing the case for dialogue but insisting that alleged Indian terrorism in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa should also be on the agenda. So India cannot just get away with wanting to discuss terrorism in Kashmir.
They claim that if India can come up with dossiers of Pakistan’s involvement in terrorism, they have compiled thicker dossiers of India’s interference in these two provinces.
The larger Pakistani argument is that by crossing the international border and hitting the Punjab heartland, India has declared war.
How is this seen in world capitals? Sahgal argues that the world is tired of India vs Pakistan. They accept that India militarily had the better of the exchanges during Operation Sindoor, so India is militarily a more capable power.
But India’s strike on the Nur Khan Airbase, a nuclear command centre, held out the potential for dangerous escalation breaching the nuclear threshold, and India as the bigger and more mature power, should act more responsibly.
The worry for Pakistan is that the game of one upmanship with India can only go up to a point. It lacks backup in terms of economic muscle, and increases the risk of dependence on one or more big players.
Tune in for more in this conversation with Brig Arun Sahgal on post Operation Sindoor.
